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Ukrainian Barley Exports Expected to Halve in September Due to Reduced Chinese Demand
The volume of Ukrainian barley export contracts for September 2024 is projected to be around 280,000 tons, a significant decrease from the 600,000 tons contracted in August. The primary reason for this drastic reduction is the decrease in demand from China, which previously accounted for 55-56% of the total Ukrainian barley exports. This information comes from the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established under the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
Reasons for Reduced Demand from China
Forecasts indicate that China plans to switch from Ukrainian to Australian barley by December-January. This will significantly impact the export volumes of Ukrainian barley. PUSK notes that without Chinese contracts, monthly Ukrainian barley exports are unlikely to exceed 300,000 tons. The decrease in demand is already being felt in the domestic market, where some traders are halting barley purchases and shifting to other crops such as corn.
Market Trends and Prices
Currently, barley prices remain within the range of $170-172 per ton. PUSK experts predict that the wheat market may have a positive effect on the barley market, potentially leading to a slight increase in prices by the end of August – beginning of September. However, from September onwards, barley may become a more niche crop.
Previously, in January 2024, it was reported that winter wheat and corn proved unprofitable due to low prices and rising logistics costs in 2023. On August 14, it was also noted that sugar exports from Ukraine had significantly decreased due to European tariffs.
Source: liga
