Russia intends to end the war with Ukraine by the end of 2025 or early 2026 with a victory, as starting next summer, it could face serious economic problems that would necessitate a mobilization, potentially undermining the socio-political stability of the country. This information comes from Ukraine’s military intelligence service (GRU), according to reports.
“The key period for them is between 2025 and 2026. They want to conclude all of this because, according to their calculations, if Russia doesn’t win this war, it will fall far short of achieving superpower status,” said Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, as quoted by Interfax-Ukraine.
Citing Russian documents, Budanov mentioned that if Russia does not win the war by the end of 2025, only two superpowers – the United States and China – will remain, with no place for the Russian Federation.
“They are aware of this. That’s why they’ll do everything they can to win. Otherwise, they’ll be pushed out of global processes altogether and relegated to mere regional leadership, which doesn’t satisfy them,” Budanov emphasized.
He also pointed out that Russia anticipates its economic troubles will begin to hit hard by the summer of 2025, affecting both the financial and socio-political sectors. Additionally, the issue of insufficient military recruitment is becoming more acute.
“In that period (summer 2025), Russia will face a dilemma: either announce a mobilization or somehow reduce the intensity of hostilities, which could prove critical for them,” Budanov explained.
Budanov believes that there is growing war fatigue among the Russian population, particularly as the conflict has already affected a significant portion of society. He added that Ukraine’s efforts to bring the war onto Russian territory have also shifted the mindset of the Russian public.
“This has changed their worldview. Previously, Russians lived in the belief that no matter what, they were an invincible nation. Now, with the first explosions in Moscow and other parts of Russia, that myth has been shattered,” Budanov concluded.
