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On Sunday, Tunisia will hold elections that could become a landmark for the country that became the cradle of the Arab Spring more than a decade ago. According to Bloomberg, the results of the vote are likely to confirm a stronger partnership with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, which in turn could lead to a further reduction in illegal migration to Europe.
President Qais Said has consolidated power over the past five years, drawing criticism for suppressing the opposition, jailing critics and discriminating against black migrants. The support of Maloney and other European leaders in the fight against migration makes him an almost guaranteed winner. However, such an outcome could worsen economic conditions for ordinary Tunisians, who are already facing high unemployment, food shortages and rising prices.
Meloni and Said share a common goal of fighting illegal migration, which was the basis for the Italian prime minister’s rise to power in 2022. Last year, they signed an agreement aimed at stopping attempts to turn the Mediterranean Sea into a channel for migrants. This has led to a 60% reduction in the number of maritime arrivals to over 50,000 in 2024.
Despite criticism of human rights abuses, Maloney has sought to expand his partnership with Tunisia within the EU, proposing a €5 billion investment plan to improve energy and food security in Africa. However, the broad agreement signed last year between Tunisia and the EU has not yet been implemented.
Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group, said Tunisia has become Europe’s “last line of defence” in the fight against migration, as attempts to stop migration flows from West Africa have failed.
Said, who became president in 2019, has a rather unusual image for a populist. His strict manner of communication and quoting classics of political thought have caused concern among European officials. They are worried about the possibility of a negative reaction from Said to criticism from the EU, which could lead to delays or disruption of agreements.
Despite all the difficulties, Said could put the country back on the path of migration across the Mediterranean, saying that Europe cannot use Tunisia as its “dependency”. His unpredictability makes the situation even more tense.
In light of these developments, many observers fear that the elections could lead to even greater political instability. Tunisians, who have previously fought for democracy, could see political freedoms curtailed if Said regains control.
Time will tell what consequences these elections will have for Tunisia and its place in the global context. Source: Bloomberg
