Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and former US President Donald Trump Photo: Zoltan Fischer / AFP / Profimedia
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is preparing an important political move that could create serious obstacles to financial aid to Ukraine while providing support for his transatlantic ally Donald Trump, Politico reports.
According to the newspaper, Orban has come up with a clever way to allow Trump, if he wins the US presidential election, to avoid the $50 billion loan obligation. These funds are to be raised by the United States, the European Union and the G7 countries to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
The Hungarian prime minister is using his veto power to block a key change in European sanctions that would allow Washington to play an important role in the loan. And while this move could cost Europe, including Hungary itself, more money, Orban seems willing to do so for Trump’s political benefit, European diplomats warn.
Playing the sanctions game
According to the plan, the loan to Ukraine is to be repaid from the excess profits generated by the frozen Russian assets, which exceed $250 billion. Most of these assets are located in Europe, making the EU a major player in this deal. However, for the plan to succeed, it is important that all parties synchronise their actions. The US insists that the EU extend the sanctions for at least 36 months, instead of the current six.
If the sanctions are not extended, there is a risk that one of the EU countries will unfreeze Russian assets. In this case, national governments will have to use their own budgets to cover the cost of the loan, making it much more expensive for the entire EU.
Despite pressure from the US and other EU leaders, Orban continues to resist extending the sanctions. His veto could derail the entire deal, putting financial support for Ukraine at risk.
Benefits for Trump
While Europe is trying to find a way to extend sanctions and engage the US in financial assistance to Ukraine, Orban is betting on the opposite. If the deal is approved without Washington’s involvement and Trump wins the election, he will avoid the obligation to repay the loan, as the US will not be involved in the bulk of the financing.
As the situation in Ukraine deteriorates, the country urgently needs financial assistance to support its government and prepare for winter challenges. European leaders are preparing for new spending if the US does not participate in the loan.
However, for Orban, diplomats point out, this is a trifle. “They (Hungary) don’t care how much Europe pays. The main thing is to help Trump,” said one EU official.
The US may be less involved
Nevertheless, the United States does not rule out participation in financial assistance, even if Europe fails to extend sanctions, Politico‘s sources say. One of the possible options is that the US will contribute about $5 billion, which is roughly equal to the value of Russian assets located in the country. However, most of the financial burden will be borne by Europe.
Thus, Orban’s steps not only affect the EU economy, but also demonstrate his political game at the global level, where he seeks profitable alliances, even at the cost of increased costs for European taxpayers.
