Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine
As the third military winter approaches, which could be the most difficult for Ukraine, the government in Kyiv is considering difficult compromises with Russia for the first time. The German newspaper Der Spiegel writes about this, citing anonymous sources in the Ukrainian government.
According to the publication, the Ukrainian government is considering a scenario for ending the war that includes a temporary abandonment of the goal of returning all the occupied territories. This could be the first such step by Kyiv during the war.
The official, quoted by Der Spiegel, admitted: “We believed that victory meant Russia’s unconditional surrender, but that was a misconception.” He noted that any agreement must also be beneficial for Russia, and that peace cannot be achieved without some concessions.
Signs of exhaustion in society
Discussions of compromises against the backdrop of war have emerged in the context of growing fatigue among the Ukrainian population. Initial optimism about military successes, especially after the August operation in Russia’s Kursk region, is gradually fading. In eastern Ukraine, Russia continues its slow but irreversible offensive, forcing some Ukrainian politicians to reassess their options.
The situation is further complicated by the uncertainty about US support after the upcoming presidential election in November. According to the anonymous official, even if either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, America will gradually reduce its involvement. According to the official, “people don’t want to fight anymore”, while Ukraine is preparing for another difficult winter that could be decisive.
Western models and views of allies
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed that the ultimate goal is the liberation of all Ukrainian territories, including those under Russian occupation. However, the Financial Times reported that diplomatic circles are discussing a “West German” model for ending the war, which involves giving up military liberation of territories in exchange for joining NATO.
Some of Ukraine’s allies are also beginning to lean towards this idea. For example, in September, Czech President Petr Pavel said that Ukraine should be realistic about its ability to return the occupied territories, recognising that the war could end with part of the territory under Russian control.
Dilemmas within Ukraine
Despite a growing desire for compromise, a significant number of Ukrainians remain determined to refuse to negotiate with Russia. During the first year of the war, according to polls, 80% of Ukrainians believed in victory; this year, this figure has dropped to 60%.
According to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the share of those who are ready to endure war to liberate the territories dropped from 72% in May to 63% in September. At the same time, a growing number of Ukrainians, especially young people, are ready to support compromises, in particular if it allows them to join the EU and NATO. 47% of Ukrainians would agree to freeze the current frontline.
However, Der Spiegel warns that there are forces in Ukraine that are strongly opposed to any negotiations with Russia, and this could pose a challenge for President Zelenskyy if he chooses to compromise. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko estimates that about a third of the population is not ready for such concessions, and this sentiment also applies to the military.
Thus, Ukraine finds itself at a difficult crossroads where compromise may be the only way to peace, but it may also trigger new internal conflicts.
