Photo: Irna.ir
In the current geopolitical confrontation between the United States and Iran, Russia finds itself in a difficult dilemma. As Konstantin Eggert notes for DW, Vladimir Putin may be willing to sacrifice his strategic partnership with Tehran if it helps secure a victory over Kyiv.
American Influences on Russia’s Plans
If reports are to be believed, the Joe Biden administration may have asked Israel to refrain from striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, which creates a mixed situation for Putin. On the one hand, this is bad news for the Kremlin: the destruction of Iranian oil and gas facilities could lead to higher oil prices, which would be a financial benefit for the Russian budget, as Russia plans to spend 40% of its state budget on war in 2025. But at the same time, this is also good news: the infrastructure of Iran’s nuclear programme, much of which was built with Russian support, will not be affected.
Nevertheless, the question of whether Israel will agree to such requests remains open. However, it is likely that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not take any decisive action until after the US presidential election.
Russia, Iran and weapons
Despite this geopolitical context, Moscow continues to deepen its ties with Tehran. At a summit in Turkmenistan, Putin met with Iranian President Massoud Peseshkian, and by the end of the month, a strategic partnership agreement between the two countries is expected to be signed, similar to the one already concluded with North Korea.
In addition, according to The Wall Street Journal, Victor Booth, known as the “merchant of death”, discussed in Moscow the possibility of supplying weapons to the Yemeni Houthis, Iran’s allies. This is complemented by Russia’s supply of missiles to fire at ships in the Red Sea, which could also fall into the hands of the Houthis. In turn, Iran is helping Russia replenish its stockpile of missiles for shelling Ukraine. Both countries benefit from this interaction: Iran strengthens its position in the Middle East, and Russia continues its war against Ukraine.
The Iranian factor in the war against Ukraine
Today, Iran is helping Russia in its war against Ukraine by supplying missiles and military equipment. Russia, for its part, is helping Iran in conflicts in the Middle East, particularly in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and is supporting pro-Iranian forces in Lebanon and Syria.
Will the change of government in the US have an impact?
The question remains how this picture will change after the inauguration of the new US president in 2025. If Kamala Harris wins the election and the Democrats retain control of the Senate, the White House may try to renew the 2015 multilateral agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. If Donald Trump wins, US policy is likely to become more aggressive towards Iran, and Washington may even consider a scenario of regime change in Tehran.
Is it possible to “exchange” Ukraine for Iran?
If the confrontation between the US and Iran intensifies, Putin may sacrifice his military cooperation with Tehran if it helps to end the war in Ukraine on terms favourable to him. Despite the low probability of such a scenario, it remains in the political discussion. The question is: will the US make a proposal to “trade” Ukraine for Iran? And if so, how will US senators and European allies react?
Clearly, for Putin, the issue of defeating Ukraine is much more important than long-term relations with Iran, despite all their current alliance commitments.
This situation demonstrates the complexity and fragility of international alliances in modern geopolitics, when each party to the conflict is trying to find the most favourable way to win.
