Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election could seriously affect not only US domestic policy but also the foreign policy situation in Asia, in particular South Korea’s strategy to support Ukraine. Throughout the war in Ukraine, Seoul refrained from providing lethal assistance, but a change of leadership in the United States could force South Korea to reconsider its policy, TimeUkraineIsrael reports citing Bloomberg.
South Korea’s policy towards Ukraine: against the background of global changes
South Korea has traditionally refrained from providing weapons in international conflicts, focusing instead on supporting humanitarian initiatives and unarmed supplies for infrastructure reconstruction. Its restraint in providing military assistance to Ukraine is explained, in particular, by the risk of escalation of the conflict with Russia, which supports North Korea, and the desire to avoid shifting the balance of power in the region. In particular, South Korea is aware of its vulnerability to potential threats from North Korea and its neutrality with regard to the foreign policy of the great powers.
Trump’s influence on South Korea’s course change
Trump, who has been critical of the US’s active involvement in conflicts outside the US, may change the tone of US policy after his possible re-election. However, during his previous term in office, support for Ukraine was one of the main themes of foreign policy, particularly in terms of military assistance, despite his lack of support for pan-European diplomacy. If Trump decides that it is necessary to actively support Ukraine in order to maintain US strategic influence in Europe and Asia, this could be an incentive for South Korea to reconsider its position on lethal aid.
Risks for South Korea: North Korea and China
One of the main reasons for South Korea’s restraint in providing weapons to Ukraine is its desire not to increase tensions with Russia and China, which are important partners for Seoul in economic and security terms. If the US foreign policy strategy changes, South Korea may face a difficult choice: whether to continue to maintain neutrality on Ukraine or to join the more aggressive US policy.
At the same time, it is important for South Korea to maintain a balance in its relations with its two largest neighbours, China and Russia, which could take advantage of any change in the political landscape in South Korea to strengthen their position in Asia.
Seoul and support for international sanctions
Despite its refusal to supply arms, South Korea actively supports international sanctions against Russia and participates in international efforts to isolate the Kremlin on the global stage. In this context, South Korea continues to cooperate with the West by supporting sanctions and facilitating diplomatic efforts. If Trump changes the US course to more active military support for Ukraine, this could provide South Korea with the necessary motivation to change its foreign policy.
Possible changes in Seoul’s policy
The changing political climate in the United States may present South Korea with a difficult choice: whether to continue its traditional policy of neutrality or to engage in a more active policy of assistance to Ukraine in order to strengthen its relations with the United States and the West. If this policy is revised, South Korea may be willing to provide more military assistance to Ukraine, given the changed security context in the international arena.
Thus, the US election results, in particular Trump’s victory, could become a catalyst for a revision of South Korea’s foreign policy towards Ukraine. This could lead to new strategic alliances that would strengthen Seoul’s position in the international arena, particularly in security and global stability.
