The deployment of Russian Oreshnik missiles in Belarus does not increase the risk of strikes against Ukraine or NATO countries, despite the Kremlin’s escalating nuclear rhetoric. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Context:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s missile capabilities when he presented the Oreshnik during a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State.
• In an interview on 5 December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to the Oreshnik strike on the Dnipro on 21 November, seeking to show the Kremlin’s readiness to escalate in order to prevent a strategic victory for the West over Russia.

Ukraine’s response:
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted the strengthening of Ukraine’s air defence thanks to the help of partners. He called for even greater resolve from the international community, saying:

“If all partners had acted more decisively, we would have been able to prevent Russian terror by now.”

ISW’s conclusions:
Experts emphasise that the deployment of these missiles in Belarus is likely intended to intimidate rather than actually strengthen Russia’s military capabilities. Military analysts believe that Ukraine’s air defence is capable of effectively countering such threats.