The agreement of the unrecognised “Transnistrian Moldovan Republic” (TMR) to accept aid from Moldova, Ukraine or the EU could significantly weaken Russia’s influence in the region, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say. This will prevent Moscow from using the energy crisis to increase Tiraspol’s dependence on Russian support.

European offer of assistance
On 27 January, the European Union proposed an aid package to Moldova and Transnistria to help resolve the gas crisis. The aim of this step is to reduce Russia’s ability to influence Moldova through energy blackmail using Transnistria.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean stressed that the EU’s support will allow Transnistria to produce electricity for its own needs and supply it to the rest of Moldova.

The critical state of Transnistria’s energy sector
Transnistria’s operational headquarters has stated that gas reserves in the region are running low and could be exhausted by early February 2025. In response, Moldovagaz is negotiating with Hungarian companies MOL and MVM to supply gas to Transnistria. Supplies are expected to start in February and last until the end of March or beginning of April 2025.

ISW believes that Transnistria’s acceptance of aid from the EU or Moldova could play a key role in reducing Russia’s influence. In addition to ensuring energy stability, this would allow Transnistria to supply cheaper electricity to the rest of Moldova, strengthening the region’s ties with Chisinau and reducing its dependence on Moscow.