In January 2025, the actual inflation rate in Ukraine reached 12.9% year-on-year, exceeding the forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine. The accelerated price growth was driven by an increase in production costs, including energy, labour, as well as tax and regulatory changes. This was reported by the NBU press service in a commentary on the economic situation.
“The main reason for the deviation of price dynamics from the forecast was a more significant increase in administratively regulated prices for goods and services, as well as the cost of market services due to a further increase in production costs,” the report said.
What has risen in price the most?
According to the NBU, prices for:
- Raw food products – +11.8% year-on-year
- Processed food products – +15.9%.
- Non-food products – +4.3%.
- Services – +14.2%.
The increase in the cost of market services was driven by higher purchase prices for raw materials, higher electricity, labour and logistics costs.
Administrative regulations and tax factors
Administratively regulated prices increased by 17.5% due to tariff adjustments and changes in tax policy.
Excisable goods, such as alcohol and tobacco products, increased due to the expected increase in excise taxes.
Fuel prices increased by 12.1%, which affected the cost of transport and logistics services.
In addition, prices for medicines, medical supplies, equipment, and even local telephone services have risen.
Why did prices rise?
NBU experts explain the January rise in prices:
- Increased raw material costs
- Increased production costs (electricity, salaries, logistics)
- Increased excise taxes and changes in tax policy
The NBU forecasts that inflationary pressures will remain high, but may stabilise in the second half of 2025.
