Photo: Joeran Steinsiek
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised a historic turnaround in the country’s military policy. The Zeitenwende plan, designed to modernise the Bundeswehr, was supposed to provide Germany with a combat-ready army and strengthen NATO’s defence capabilities. However, three years later, military experts and lawmakers are sounding the alarm: the reforms have actually failed, and the combat capability of the German army has only deteriorated. This was reported by Reuters.
Critical situation: the army is less capable than three years ago
According to the head of the German Armed Forces Association, Colonel Andre Westner, the combat readiness of the ground forces has dropped to 50% compared to 65% before the war in Ukraine. The reason for this was both the supply of weapons and ammunition to Kyiv and the increased use of military equipment during exercises.
In addition, Germany recognises that the country will not fulfil its obligations to NATO. The planned formation of two divisions by 2025 and 2027, with a total of 40,000 troops, has faced serious problems. According to Bundestag member Ingo Gedekens, the second division is only 20% complete, and even if new equipment is ordered immediately, it cannot be delivered in time.
Reasons for failure: bureaucracy, lack of funding and lack of strategy
Reuters notes that one of the main factors behind the failure is Germany’s bureaucratic procurement system. Bureaucratic obstacles and a lack of strategic vision are hampering the implementation of key projects, including the creation of an effective air defence system.
In addition, the financial pressure on Berlin after the COVID-19 pandemic and tight budget constraints make it difficult to implement military reforms. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius believes that spending of 3% of GDP is needed to ensure the army’s combat capability. At the same time, former US President Donald Trump is demanding that NATO allies increase military spending to 5% of GDP, which could be an unbearable financial burden for Germany.
A headache for NATO and Europe
The situation with the Bundeswehr is a cause for concern not only in Germany, but also among NATO allies. Given the geopolitical instability, the weakness of the German army creates additional security risks on the eastern flank of the Alliance.
At the same time, against the backdrop of discussions about a potential peace agreement between the United States and Russia that could increase Europe’s responsibility for its own defence, Germany’s inability to quickly strengthen its armed forces looks particularly threatening.
Despite the crisis, Olaf Scholz continues to insist that his government is working to strengthen the army. However, in the three years since the Zeitenwende was announced, Germany has not been able to achieve its goals. This calls into question not only the effectiveness of the military reform, but also the country’s strategic role in the European defence system.
