Friedrich Merz. Photo: global look press
Last week, Munich hosted one of the most important security conferences in recent history, which became not only a platform for discussion but also an indicator of future political developments in Europe. The expected winner of the German elections, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, demonstrated his readiness to take on a new role as the continent’s leader in the face of an unstable international situation.
Germany on the eve of elections: the changing political landscape
On 25 February, Germany will hold early parliamentary elections caused by the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition led by Olaf Scholz (SPD), Vice Chancellor Robert Haback (Greens) and FDP leader Christian Lindner. According to the latest polls, the CDU/CSU bloc led by Merz is in first place in the ratings, followed by the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which creates a risk of an escalation of political conflict.
Despite the mainstream parties’ promises not to cooperate with the AfD, the situation is complicated by the support the party unexpectedly received from US Vice President J.D. Vance. Despite the obvious tension, Merz tried to remain indifferent to the issue during his speech in Munich.
Merz as the future leader of Europe?
In its analysis, the authoritative Reuters agency notes that if Merz becomes chancellor, he could become the most influential figure in Europe. The former financier and lawyer, who returned to big politics after his defeat by Angela Merkel in 2002, intends to change the course of Germany’s foreign policy.
At the Munich conference, he presented a vision of how Germany should respond to the security challenges posed by a possible change in US policy towards Ukraine. Merz made it clear: “I fully support calls for greater initiative from Germany. We are in the strategic centre of Europe and a lot depends on us.”
The NATO split and the future of support for Ukraine
The last two weeks have shown a growing gap between the Donald Trump administration and the US European allies. The issue of funding for Ukraine is becoming increasingly acute, and EU leaders are forced to think about alternative scenarios.
Until now, the continent’s defence has been mainly shaped by the UK, France and Eastern European countries. However, if Merz wins, Germany has a chance to become the main pillar of European security. After all, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, Germany is the world’s fourth largest defence spender, behind only the United States, Russia and China.
Can Germany become a guarantor of stability in a time of international turbulence? The answer to this question will depend on the election results and new political arrangements that will shape the future of European security.
