Kyiv, 25 February 2025 – Ukraine will be able to continue fighting at the current pace at least until the summer, even if US military aid is suspended. The Wall Street Journal reports, citing former and current Western officials.
According to former Pentagon official Celeste Wallander, the volume of arms shipments that have been sent or ordered by President Joe Biden’s administration in recent months provides Ukrainian forces with sufficient resources to fight until at least mid-2025. Wallander stressed that these supplies were planned in such a way that the Ukrainian army would be able to hold the frontline even in the face of political uncertainty about future US support.
Mykola Beleskov, a senior analyst at Come Back Alive, noted that the Ukrainian army is capable of holding the line for another six months or even a year, after which it will need to rely on its own ammunition production and supplies from Europe. In his opinion, the Ukrainian defence sector is already demonstrating the ability to rapidly increase production of the necessary weapons, although replacing some high-tech systems from the United States will remain a challenge.
According to the WSJ, Ukraine currently meets about 55% of its own military equipment needs by financing its production on the domestic market. Another 25% is provided by European partners, and about 20% by the United States. However, analysts warn that some of the systems supplied by the US are critical to the Ukrainian army and cannot be quickly replaced by European analogues. We are talking about advanced air defence systems, long-range artillery, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and modern navigation systems. Europe currently does not produce them in sufficient quantities or does not have the relevant capacities at all.
The WSJ notes that in the event of a complete cessation of US military aid, Kyiv would face problems securing ammunition for some of its most advanced weapons systems. Ukrainian officials acknowledge the risks associated with a potential withdrawal of support from Washington, calling such a scenario “the worst possible scenario.” In an interview with the WSJ, an aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that if US aid were to stop, Kyiv would be forced to accelerate the development of its own defence sector and intensify cooperation with European partners to cover the arms shortfall.
Despite these risks, European countries have demonstrated a willingness to increase their support for Ukraine. According to the WSJ, in 2024, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Norway together supplied Ukraine with arms and ammunition worth about $25 billion, which exceeded the amount of US aid over the same period. The newspaper’s sources note that European countries are preparing to increase production of ammunition and equipment to compensate for possible losses of supplies from the United States.
At the same time, analysts emphasise that the United States remains Ukraine’s key partner in the supply of high-tech weapons. The termination of these supplies could significantly affect Ukraine’s ability to effectively defend itself against Russian aggression in the medium term.
Given the risks, experts urge Kyiv to strengthen its own production capacities and expand cooperation with European defence companies. Despite the current challenges, Ukraine retains the ability to hold the front line in the coming months, but further support from its allies remains critical to ensure sustainable defence and the continuation of the fight for its independence.
