Photo: EPA
London, UK – This week, the British prime minister will visit Washington to try to mend relations between US President Donald Trump and European leaders. However, analysts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI ) warn that for this mission to succeed, he will have to show determination and political courage.
Crisis of confidence in NATO and threats to Europe
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Euro-Atlantic alliance, still reeling from the failure in Afghanistan, united against Moscow. However, with the return of Donald Trump to the White House , European unity has cracked, and hopes for Ukraine’s victory have begun to fade.
The main problem is that the US has become a source of instability. Trump has openly criticised NATO and European allies, and his administration has signalled its readiness to freeze support for Ukraine and review sanctions against Russia.
If Trump fulfils his promises and returns Russia to the G8 and lifts sanctions, this will allow Moscow to accelerate its military rearmament and increase the threat to NATO.
What can the UK do?
The Prime Minister has a chance to use his visit to establish a strategic dialogue between the US and Europe. To do so, he has:
– Convince Trump of NATO’s importance to US security
– Demonstrate Britain’s leadership in European security
– Offer alternative ways of cooperation, including through the Arctic
For this to work, he needs to get the support of British ministers and parliament, creating a unified position for negotiations.
How to convince Trump?
The British prime minister’s legal background may prevent him from negotiating effectively with Trump, who is more concerned with emotions and personal image. He should play on the American president’s ego by showing that a loss of Ukraine would be a blow to his reputation.
It is also important to find out directly what role the United States is prepared to play in NATO. Will it remain the leader of the alliance? Will they revise NATO’s nuclear strategy?
British troops in Ukraine: mission or trap?
During recent talks, Trump praised Britain’s willingness to send troops to Ukraine. However, RUSI analysts warn that such a step without clear guarantees of US support could be disastrous.
European countries are considering a plan to deploy 30,000 troops to the conflict zone, but the success of such a mission will depend on American support. If Trump does not guarantee assistance, Britain should refuse to deploy troops.
The Arctic as a way to maintain US influence in Europe
One of the most promising areas for maintaining transatlantic cooperation is the Arctic. The United States cannot completely withdraw from European security, as this region is an arena of geopolitical rivalry with Russia and China.
The UK, along with its Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) allies, can offer Washington closer military cooperation in the Arctic, which will help keep the US out of the European security sphere.
Will Britain have enough political will?
If the prime minister really wants to play the role of mediator between the US and Europe, he will have to pay a high price. Raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP is a minimum step, but it may be necessary to raise it to 3% to prove that he is serious.
The UK has a window of opportunity to reset its relationship with the US and strengthen its role in global security. But can it take advantage of it?
