Photo: Depositphotos
At the beginning of 2025, global geopolitics is in a state of tense anticipation, as Donald Trump’s return to the White House coincides with the rise of the BRICS, an alliance in which Russia and Iran are playing an increasingly prominent role. This triangle – Russia, BRICS (with Iran as a new member) and Trump – forms a complex interaction where economic, political and military interests intertwine against a backdrop of global change. As a leading journalist, I propose to understand these dynamics based on the latest developments as of 28 February 2025.
Russia and BRICS: Anti-Western Vector and Putin’s Ambitions
Originally conceived as an economic club of developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), the BRICS, after its expansion in 2024 to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE, is increasingly becoming geopolitically charged. Russia, which is under Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, sees the BRICS as a tool to counter the US and EU. Vladimir Putin is actively promoting the idea of creating an alternative to the dollar – a common currency or payment system that would reduce dependence on Western financial institutions.
Photo: MNA/Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali said.
In 2024, at the Kazan summit, Russia tried to convince its BRICS partners of the need for such a step, but faced resistance. India and China, despite their anti-Western rhetoric, are not ready to risk their economic ties with the United States. Iran, on the other hand, has become a natural ally of Russia in this matter: sanctions against Tehran make it interested in any initiatives that weaken the West. Together, Russia and Iran are trying to give the BRICS an anti-Western impetus, but their influence is limited by the inconsistency of the other members’ positions.
Recent months have shown that Russia is using the BRICS as a platform to demonstrate its “non-isolation”. Meetings with the leaders of Iran, China and India, as well as inviting new partners such as Thailand and Turkey to join the bloc, are Putin’s attempts to prove that Moscow has an alternative to the Western world. However, Russia’s economic weakness (recession, falling energy revenues due to sanctions) contrasts with its ambitions, and the BRICS remains more of a symbol than a real force.
Iran in BRICS: a new player with old goals
Iran’s accession to the BRICS in January 2024 was a logical step for Tehran, which is looking for allies in its fight against US sanctions. Iran, like Russia, is interested in creating an alternative financial system and strengthening military and technical cooperation with the bloc’s members. Recent data indicate that ties between Iran and Russia are deepening: Tehran is supplying Moscow with drones and ballistic missiles for the war in Ukraine, and Russia is likely to share technology and intelligence with Iran.
Within the BRICS, Iran is trying to position itself as a regional leader in the Middle East, competing with other members such as the UAE or Saudi Arabia (which, by the way, has not yet confirmed full membership). However, Iran’s economic isolation and its conflict with Israel complicate its integration into the bloc. For Russia, Iran is not only a partner, but also a lever of pressure on the West, especially on the United States, where Trump now has to decide how to respond to this alliance.
Photo: iNOURNEWS
Trump and the BRICS challenge: tariffs as a weapon
Donald Trump’s return to power in January 2025 dramatically changed the tone of the dialogue between the US and the BRICS. One of Trump’s first foreign policy priorities was to react to the idea of abandoning the dollar. In January, he threatened the BRICS countries with 100% tariffs on their goods if they promoted their own currency or an alternative payment system. “The dollar will remain king, and anyone who tries otherwise will say goodbye to the American market,” Trump said on Truth Social.
This position is of particular importance for Russia and Iran, whose economies are already cut off from the US by sanctions. For them, Trump’s threats are more of a political gesture than a real threat. However, for the other BRICS members – China, India, and Brazil – the US market remains critically important. China, for example, exports hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods to the US every year, and 100% tariffs could deal a devastating blow to its economy. India, which is balancing between the West and the BRICS, is also not ready to sacrifice trade with America for the sake of Russian-Iranian ambitions.
Trump appears to have opted for a strategy of intimidation to split the BRICS from within. His approach contrasts with Biden’s softer policy, which preferred to express “deep concern”. Recent weeks have shown that this tactic is already having an impact: China and India have publicly distanced themselves from the idea of a common currency, and Brazil has called for a “pragmatic dialogue” with the US.
Russia, Iran and Trump: points of confrontation
Trump’s relations with Russia and Iran in 2025 promise to be tense, but not without nuance. On the one hand, Trump is demonstrating toughness: the extension of sanctions against Russia (27 February) and the preparation of new restrictions against Iran indicate a desire to maintain pressure. On the other hand, his rhetoric of “peace through strength” and his willingness to negotiate with Putin (for example, over Ukraine) hint at possible compromises.
Russia hopes to take advantage of Trump’s unpredictability. Putin has already praised him for his “pragmatism”, hoping that the US may weaken its support for Ukraine or lift some sanctions in exchange for concessions. Iran, on the other hand, is preparing for a confrontation: Tehran has stepped up its nuclear programme, and its cooperation with Russia in the BRICS only strengthens its position.
Photo: MFA Russia/Globallookpress
Split or consolidation?
By February 2025, Russia and Iran are trying to make the BRICS an anti-Western outpost, but their plans are facing internal contradictions within the bloc and external pressure from Trump. The United States, through economic power and tariff threats, has a chance to split the BRICS, separating Russia and Iran from more pragmatic members such as China or India. At the same time, Russia and Iran will continue to strengthen their axis, using the BRICS as a platform to confront the West.
Trump, for his part, is playing a game of power, with the dollar as his main card. Whether he succeeds in destroying Russia’s and Iran’s ambitions in the BRICS, or whether Putin and Tehran find a way to circumvent the pressure, depends on the months ahead. One thing is for sure: the geopolitical chessboard is far from balanced.
Author: Katerina Bogdanenko
28 February 2025
