The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War(ISW) warns that the termination of US military aid to Ukraine will not only strengthen Vladimir Putin’s confidence in the possibility of seizing Ukraine, but will also pose a threat to other post-Soviet states, including NATO members. This is stated in the ISW analytical report.
According to analysts, Donald Trump’s decision to suspend military aid to Kyiv poses a critical threat to Ukrainian forces, which, thanks to American weapons, were able to significantly slow down Russia’s offensive and inflict significant losses on it.
“Russia will use the halt in US aid to make new territorial gains and to deplete European support for Ukraine – this is part of Putin’s strategy,” ISW said.
The threat of new invasions
ISW emphasises that without US support, Ukraine risks losing its defence capabilities, which could tilt the war in favour of the Kremlin.
Analysts point out that Moscow, sensing the West’s weakness, may expand its military campaign not only in Ukraine but also in other post-Soviet states, including NATO countries.
Undermining the funding of Ukraine’s defence industry could lead to the Kremlin intensifying hostilities and attempting to consolidate control over the occupied territories.
Western reaction
The ISW warns that withdrawing support for Ukraine directly contradicts Donald Trump’s stated policy of establishing a “lasting peace”. Moreover, such a move could escalate the war and force European allies to reconsider their defence policies.
According to analysts, the Kremlin will use any delay in the supply of weapons, as it did in the spring of 2024, to intensify its aggression and expand its occupation operations.
