Photo: Depositphotos
Brisbane/Hong Kong, 6 March 2025 – China is not just showing off its power near Taiwan or in the South China Sea. According to CNN, Chinese warships have been sailing near Australia for more than three weeks, conducting live-fire exercises on the border with New Zealand, and appearing near Vietnam and Taiwan. For US allies, this is a wake-up call: Chinese military presence is now a new reality in the Pacific.
Weakening the US – strengthening China
These manoeuvres are taking place without official warnings, which has caused concern in Canberra and Wellington. Australia publishes daily tracking data on Chinese ships, and Defence Minister Richard Marles said that the authorities are analysing the targets and possible signals from Beijing. Meanwhile, China insists that it is acting within the framework of international law and advises the West to get used to the constant presence of Chinese warships in the region.
China’s manoeuvres coincided with a diplomatic scandal in Washington: during a meeting in the Oval Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expelled US Vice President J.D. Vance, after which President Donald Trump suspended aid to Ukraine. This shocked allies on both sides of the Pacific.
“If the United States is ready to abandon Ukraine, will it stand up for its partners in Asia?” is a question that is increasingly being asked by the governments of Australia, Japan and South Korea. Trump is demanding that allies increase defence spending and stresses that the era of “free protection” is over.
“The US will no longer tolerate stowaways,” said expert Drew Thompson from Singapore.
Is AUKUS under threat?
China’s rise has drawn attention to the AUKUS pact, a defence agreement between the US, UK and Australia. However, scepticism was raised by Trump’s statement when asked about AUKUS: “What is it?” Nevertheless, the deal has received the support of his advisers, and Australia has already made a $500 million down payment for submarine production in the US.
Experts emphasise: Trump sees the AUKUS as a “perfect deal” that provides the US with profits, but whether such arrangements can replace the traditional system of collective security that has guaranteed stability in the region for decades is an open question.
East Asia on the alert
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called for the G7 to remain united and hinted that Ukraine today is a potential East Asia tomorrow. Taiwan is also closely monitoring the changes, recognising the priority of American interests in its policy, but at the same time preparing for the possible loss of US guarantees.
“This is a test of resolve,” Thompson said. China is testing step by step whether regional countries are ready to continue relying on the United States or whether it is time to strengthen their own defence capabilities and alliances.
While the US is busy with internal crises and Trump’s transactional policies, China is increasing its influence, testing the patience of its neighbours and the resilience of US security guarantees.
