Donald Trump Photo: Getty images
US President Donald Trump dodged a direct question about a possible recession in the country during an interview with Fox News on Sunday. “I hate to make those kinds of predictions,” he said, as quoted by AFP.
Trump and economic uncertainty
The head of the White House acknowledged that the US economy is in a “transition period”, but refrained from making any clear assessment of its future. Since returning to power, Trump has pursued an aggressive trade policy, including imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, although he later postponed their entry into force until April.
Is the US facing a recession?
During a press briefing on board the presidential plane Air Force One, journalists again asked Trump whether he expected an economic downturn. The president answered evasively: “Who knows?”.
Economists warn that the White House’s new tariff policy could lead to a two-quarter decline in US GDP in a row, a classic definition of a recession. However, for now, markets remain in a state of uncertainty as Trump simultaneously announces new tariffs and backtracks on previous decisions.
Markets and businesses in anticipation
Businesses and investors are concerned about the administration’s unpredictable actions. Trump has hinted that trade duties may increase, although there are no concrete decisions yet. “We may increase some tariffs. It depends on the circumstances,” he told Fox News.
Financial analysts warn that the longer the duties remain in place, the greater the risk of recession. The American Banking Association (ABA) also expresses concerns that the tariff increase will increase inflationary pressures and lead to higher prices for consumers.
Will the 2020 crisis happen again?
The last recession in the US occurred in early 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, when millions of Americans lost their jobs. Experts say that a new economic crisis is only possible if trade restrictions remain in place throughout 2025.
What the White House will do next remains an open question. However, financial markets are already feeling the impact of political instability.
