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Washington – After a year and a half of intense fighting in Yemen, US intelligence agencies are forced to admit that despite massive strikes by the US-led coalition and the United Kingdom, the Houthis’ arsenal remains largely unknown. The Ansar Allah insurgent group, better known as the Houthis, continues to impress American military analysts with its ingenuity and resilience, calling into question the effectiveness of the deterrence strategy employed by Washington and its allies.
Since October 2023, when the Houthis launched attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea in response to the conflict in Gaza, the United States and its partners have conducted hundreds of strikes on the group’s facilities in Yemen. However, according to senior US intelligence officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, even after 18 months of fighting, the exact extent of the Houthis’ weapons and their ability to replenish them remain a mystery. “We see them continuing to launch missiles and drones, but we can’t say for sure how much our strikes have weakened their production capacity,” one of the sources told reporters.
Iranian support and local skills
According to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), the Houthis receive significant support from Iran, which supplies key components for their weapons, from ballistic missiles to drones. The US military points to the similarity of certain systems to Iranian developments, such as Shahed drones, which are widely used in other regions. However, experts emphasise that a significant part of the Houthis’ arsenal is produced directly in Yemen. “Iran provides the technology and raw materials, but the Houthis have learnt to assemble weapons from available materials, adapting them to their own conditions,” explains Michael O’Hanlon, a Middle East specialist at the Brookings Institution.
This ability to improvise has become an unexpected challenge for the Pentagon. Despite their lack of access to advanced technology, the Houthis have demonstrated impressive flexibility, converting civilian vessels into reconnaissance platforms and creating improvised explosive devices. “They’re learning from their mistakes faster than we thought they would,” a US Department of Defence official acknowledged, adding that the group has successfully adjusted its tactics after each stage of coalition strikes.
Strokes with no visible result?
Since the start of the operation in January 2024, the coalition has attacked more than 200 Houthi targets, including weapons depots, launchers and production facilities. According to CENTCOM, in February 2024 alone, eight underground caches and several launch sites were destroyed. However, the Houthis continue to attack ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. For example, on 9 March 2025, their missile nearly hit a US destroyer, underscoring the ongoing threat.
US officials acknowledge that uncertainty about Houthi production capabilities makes it difficult to assess the effectiveness of strikes. “We know that our actions are causing damage, but we can’t measure how much they are reducing their capabilities,” said an intelligence source. This ambiguity reflects a deeper problem: the Houthis, hardened by a decade of war against the Saudi-led coalition, have developed a resilience to external pressure, including bombing and economic sanctions.
Evolution of tactics and the challenge for intelligence
The Houthis are not only maintaining their combat capability, but also improving their methods. According to military analysts, they have shifted from massive drone attacks to more precise ballistic missile strikes, indicating that their operational capabilities have evolved. “These are not just rebels with outdated weapons,” said Jonathan Schanzer, a former CIA analyst on Yemen, “They are showing a level of innovation that makes us revise our initial assessments.
The US intelligence services are actively studying Houthi tactics, analysing the wreckage of downed drones and missiles, as well as intercepting their communications. However, the lack of ground operations in Yemen significantly limits the ability to gather information. “We rely on data from the air and sea, but this is not enough to get the full picture,” explained one intelligence officer.
Geopolitical context and implications
The uncertainty about the Houthis’ arsenal has far-reaching consequences. The Red Sea remains a vital artery for global trade, and continued attacks are forcing shipping companies to re-route, raising costs and destabilising the region’s economy. In addition, the failure of the United States and its allies to rein in the Houthis strengthens the position of Iran, which uses the group as a tool to pressure the West and its partners in the region, such as Saudi Arabia.
The administration of President Donald Trump, who took office as the 47th President of the United States in January 2025, has so far avoided escalating to a full-scale ground operation. This reflects the White House’s desire not to be drawn into another protracted conflict in the Middle East. “We don’t want a new war, but we can’t allow the Houthis to continue to threaten shipping,” an administration official said at a briefing on 10 March 2025.
While US intelligence is trying to unravel the mystery of the Houthis’ arsenal, one thing is clear: the group, which many underestimated, has turned out to be an unexpectedly serious adversary. Their ability to withstand coalition strikes and adapt to new conditions underscores the limits of military force in dealing with asymmetric threats. The question is how long Washington will tolerate this uncertainty – and what the cost of further delay will be.
