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In his Friday speech, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei once again criticised the United States, questioning the possibility of negotiations with Washington. But the main thing is not what he said, but what he did not say. For the first time in a long time, the Iranian leader did not rule out dialogue with the United States, which indicates that the regime in Tehran is under unprecedented pressure.
The collapse of the “Axis of Resistance” and the impasse in Iran
Just a few years ago, Iran was building an ambitious geopolitical strategy, trying to control key points in the Middle East. But today, this “Axis of Resistance” is falling apart.
- Hamas has suffered devastating losses in the war with Israel. The militants, who have been terrorising civilians for decades, have now lost the ability to operate effectively.
- Hezbollah, which has been receiving Iranian weapons for decades, is now forced to hide behind civilians in Lebanon, avoiding direct confrontation with Israel.
- Bashar al-Assad’s regime no longer exists in Syria, which has deprived Tehran of one of its key allies.
Iran, which for many years has sponsored terrorist groups, has suddenly lost the tools it used to blackmail the region. And the situation inside the country is even worse: sanctions, economic collapse, growing isolation and growing public discontent.
Trump is sending a signal – will Tehran understand it?
On Wednesday, Donald Trump made it clear that he is ready to reconsider US policy towards Iran, but on his own terms, Bloomberg reports.
“I want Iran to be a great and successful country, but one that doesn’t have nuclear weapons,” Trump said.
This is a clear signal to Tehran: any easing of sanctions is possible only if Iran stops its nuclear weapons programme.
Tehran is well aware of this. Iran can no longer put pressure on the West through its trusted terrorists in the region because Israel has neutralised the main threats. Moreover, Khamenei himself remembers very well how in 2020 Israeli intelligence services assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the key architect of Iran’s nuclear programme, right in the suburbs of Tehran.
Tehran is well aware that any attempt to deceive the West and secretly continue its nuclear programme will result in an even bigger blow.
Iran has no choice but to change course
What Iran needs now is not more confrontation, but a way out of the crisis. The last moderate president, Massoud Peseshkian, has already made it clear that his country is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons.
This is another important signal. For the first time in many years, Tehran is beginning to realise that it is impossible to keep the people in poverty indefinitely and expect terrorism and propaganda to solve all problems.
Israel has already shown that it will not allow the Iranian regime to implement its aggressive plans. The only question now is whether Khamenei will understand this or continue to lead the country to disaster.
