Opinion by Stephen Harper
“No person shall be elected to the office of President more than twice…” So says the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution, restoring the tradition of two presidential terms, which was established by George Washington himself. Only Franklin D. Roosevelt violated this norm during World War II. Since then, every president has respected this principle. But Donald Trump is once again challenging the established order by hinting at the possibility of a third term.
Is this just another shiny object he is waving in front of us to distract us? Or is it a carefully planned step towards a final power grab? With Trump, you should always prepare for the worst.
Distraction from disasters
Distraction is a classic Trump tactic. And in the two months of his second term, there have already been plenty of reasons to do so. His promises have fallen apart like a house of cards, leaving only chaos in their wake:
- He promised an economic boom. Instead, we got unabated inflation, a plunging stock market, waning consumer confidence, a global trade war, and a looming “Trumpian recession.”
- He promised a more efficient government. Instead, he has destroyed it: civil servants’ morale has been destroyed, funding for critical programmes has been cut, public health and safety have been undermined, and his family and cronies have used their positions for personal enrichment.
- He promised “only the best people” in his administration. The reality is a parade of incompetence: the national security team communicates through commercial apps, the health secretary denies vaccines and ignores science, and the US nuclear arsenal is under threat due to chaotic personnel purges.
- He promised to raise America’s global profile. Instead, he has destroyed the position of the leader of the free world: he has weakened NATO, alienated allies, supported Russia in its aggression against a democratic state, dealt an economic blow to our partners, and dismantled the instruments of soft power, such as USAID and Voice of America.
Every new disaster is an opportunity for Trump to divert attention. And he’s a master at using it.
Retaining power
But talk of a third term is not just a distraction. For Trump, who is now a lame duck president, power has a clear expiration date. The possibility of staying on beyond 2028 is a way to keep control of the MAGA movement, silence critics in the Republican Party, and maintain influence over Congress. The threat of remaining in power is as important to him as its actual implementation.
Is this threat real? Some legal scholars argue that the 22nd Amendment, which prohibits the election of a president for a third term, does not prevent him from holding the office if he obtains it through a roundabout way. One scenario: in 2028, Trump runs for vice president with, say, J.D. Vance. They win, Vance resigns, and Trump returns to the Oval Office.
However, the 12th Amendment complicates this plan: “No person shall be eligible under the Constitution to hold the office of President, nor be eligible for Vice-President.” Since Trump has already served two terms, he seems to be ineligible even for the vice presidency.
But will this stop Trump? The Supreme Court, led by John Roberts and dominated by a conservative majority, has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to interpret the Constitution in favour of political allies. Will the court stand as a barrier to Trump, or will it declare him a king without an expiration date?
Legal dispute
Experts disagree. Yale University professor Akhil Reed Amar states: “If you can’t be elected president, you can’t be president. And if you can’t be president, you can’t be vice president.” Jeremy Paul of Northeastern University calls the idea of a third term through the vice presidency “ridiculous.” Deborah Pearlstein of Princeton adds: “Trump is constitutionally ineligible for a third term. Period.”
But not everyone agrees. Bruce Peabody of Fairleigh Dickinson University believes there is a legal loophole: The Constitution defines “eligibility” for the presidency through age, citizenship, and residency in the United States. If these are just the basic requirements, Trump could theoretically qualify for the vice presidency.
The easiest way to resolve this ambiguity is to repeal the 22nd Amendment with a new one. But in the real world, this is unrealistic: it would require a two-thirds vote in Congress and approval by two-thirds of the states, a barrier that Trump is unlikely to overcome.
Practical obstacles
But even without legal nuances, there are real problems:
- Will JD Vance (or anyone else) agree to become a puppet in this scheme and then resign?
- Will Trump, who will be 82 in 2028, have enough strength and support for another term?
- Will the courts have time to stop him if he goes to the polls?
His incompetence is already undermining his own base. The accumulation of failures may make the idea of re-election a fantasy even for his most loyal supporters.
What’s next?
Trump is at it again – challenging norms, wreaking havoc and keeping everyone on their toes. But this time, the stakes are higher than ever. Is the Supreme Court ready to reshape the Constitution to suit his whims? Will America witness the ultimate power grab by a man who puts himself above the law?
I appeal to the spirits of those who gave their lives for my freedom on the battlefields of the past. Their sacrifice reminds us that democracy is not a given, but something that must be fought for every day. And now this struggle continues.
Author : Aleksandr Potetiuiev
