US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, 15 September 2020. Photo: Tom Brenner/Reuters
Tensions are growing in Israel’s defence and political leadership: every day there are more and more reasons to doubt that US President Donald Trump will take Israeli interests into account when concluding a new nuclear deal with Iran. Some officials are hoping for a hard line from Washington, while others are preparing for a “softening deal” that could paralyse any IDF action for a long time. This was reported by The Jerusalem Post.
Optimists point to the deployment of B-2 strategic bombers with bunker busters closer to the Middle East, as well as Trump’s public threats to Tehran. But pessimists recall Trump’s pyrotechnic diplomacy with the DPRK: high-profile meetings, zero results.
Israel could have already struck Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, especially after the destruction of the S-300 systems in April and October 2024. But waiting for Trump’s consent has already cost Israel a strategic initiative. Meanwhile, the US negotiator, businessman Steve Witkoff, although a friend of Israel, has no experience in the complex technical aspects of nuclear programmes.
The position of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is even more worrying. Following the example of Libya, he will never agree to a complete abandonment of nuclear potential. At most, he will make cosmetic concessions. And if the new deal allows Iran to keep part of its programme or hide its enriched uranium stockpiles, the consequences could be catastrophic for Israel.
Netanyahu does not appear to have received clear guarantees from Trump, although he has publicly called for a “Lebanon scenario”. Even worse, he did not include key defence officials in the government briefing after the meeting with the US president, which raises suspicions of concealing the real content of the talks.
If Trump does sign a deal that does not satisfy Israel, it could tie the hands of the Mossad and the IDF at a time when Iran is particularly vulnerable to attack. Ironically, such a deal could be even more dangerous than the original 2015 JCPOA.
