Russia is moving troops: preparing for a large-scale operation in Donbas – ISW

Russian soldiers at the frontline in Ukraine, Photo: Alexey Maishev / Sputnik

The Russian military command is redeploying troops from several frontline areas to Donbas, probably preparing an interconnected offensive on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions. This is stated in the report of the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on 5 May.

According to ISW analysts, Russia has redeployed units of the 68th Army Corps and the 58th Combined Arms Army from the areas of Kurakhove and the occupied Zaporizhzhia region to the direction of Toretsk. In particular, the 39th Motorised Rifle Brigade was observed participating in the battles for Myrne, as well as advancing towards Malynivka.

The 42nd motorised rifle division is also reported to be active near Stara Mykolaivka, Oleksandropol and Kalynove. These units previously operated in the Zaporizhzhia area, but are now likely to be dispersed between Zaporizhzhia and Donbas.

In early 2025, the Russian Federation also intensified its offensive in the area with the 150th and 20th Motorised Infantry Divisions, which indicates that it has identified the area as a priority.

According to the ISW, the aim of the operation is to eliminate the Ukrainian advance southwest of Toretsk with further advance towards Kostiantynivka, as well as to encircle Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian bloggers point to the attacks near Nova Poltavka as part of a long-term strategy to encircle Ukrainian cities.

At the same time, despite intensive efforts, Russian troops have not achieved significant results since autumn 2024 due to counterattacks by the Ukrainian armed forces and the massive use of drones. Attempts to advance towards Novopavlivka also failed in April, and the enemy is now trying to use new footholds to advance.

NEWS