“Russian Railways (RZD) is rapidly losing its stability: the company has been recording a drop in traffic for 20 months in a row and is in a critical condition. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Last year, the volume of traffic decreased by 4%, and in the first five months of 2025, it was already down by more than 7%. About 300,000 empty wagons are idle on the railway tracks, which is almost a fifth of the entire fleet. This level of inefficiency threatens not only to shut down logistics in Russia but also to disrupt public transport in times of war.
The staff shortage is of particular concern. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the company is chronically understaffed: due to mobilisation, the flight of skilled personnel and the disappearance of migrant workers, there are at least 2,500 drivers and another 3,000 technical staff missing. This has a direct impact on the company’s ability to maintain regular transportation, even in priority areas for the army.
In addition, 50% of the locomotive fleet is worn out. Out of 20,000 locomotives, at least 10,000 need to be replaced immediately. According to estimates, in order to upgrade its rolling stock by 2035, Russian Railways needs to invest $3-3.5 billion annually, but it has no sources of funding. Western sanctions and cuts in budget funding have effectively deprived the company of the ability to raise loans.
Amid the systemic crisis, Russian Railways has been forced to curtail large-scale infrastructure projects. The budget for the expansion of the Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian railways was cut by two-thirds. The development of routes to European ports, which were once strategically important for export, has also been completely frozen.
These data indicate not only the deep economic degradation of one of Russia’s key transport arteries, but also the strategic vulnerability of the state in a protracted war. The railway system, which has been the mainstay of Russian logistics for decades, is now becoming a burden on the budget and national defence capability.
