Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
The regime in Tehran is facing a choice: to escalate the conflict with the United States or to demonstrate weakness, the New York Times writes. The attacks by US forces on Iranian nuclear facilities have moved the confrontation into a more dangerous phase.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that the country has the right to respond: “We reserve all options to defend our sovereignty and interests,” he stressed, accusing the US of violating the UN Charter and international law.
Iran’s options are limited. A direct escalation risks escalating into a full-scale war with US forces, which could destroy the regime or lead to years of instability, as in Iraq and Afghanistan. At the same time, refusal to respond threatens Tehran’s image as a regional player, the NYT writes.
Iran could strike at US bases and block the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 20 million barrels of oil and oil products pass daily. General Mohsen Rezaei, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, warns of this possibility.
Despite attempts at diplomacy through Turkey and European countries, Iran failed to prevent the US attacks. Previously, Tehran and Washington, with the mediation of Oman, had been negotiating to limit Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. However, the Israeli strike on Iranian facilities on 13 June effectively blocked the dialogue.
Now the situation is again going beyond diplomacy. US strikes could provoke a response from Iran’s allied forces, including the Houthis in Yemen, who have already threatened to attack US ships in the Red Sea.
The question of whether the regime in Tehran is ready for a major war remains open. But, according to political analyst Reza Salehi from Tehran: “If we do not respond, the US will not leave us alone.”
