There is one thought that has been haunting me since 2022, like an obsessive motif from an old film: America is keeping Russia from falling into the abyss. It’s not about Biden with his creaky rhetoric or Trump with his unpredictable somersaults – it’s about the United States as a system, as a shadow theatre director. These are not conspiracy theories, just dry facts: the weapons are coming in little by little, the words are like silenced shots, the actions are like walking through a minefield. And now let’s add Israel, Iran and China to this cocktail – the players who are turning the game into a real blockbuster. Let’s try to figure out what devilish plot is unfolding before our eyes.
Act One: Why didn’t they finish the prologue?
Fast forward to 2022. Ukraine is like a boxer on adrenaline: it is knocking the enemy out from under Kyiv, liberating Kharkiv, and pushing the Russians out of Kherson. Russia is knocked out: mobilisation is somewhere in dreams, trenches are only on paper, soldiers are running away, losing their shoes. And now imagine: The US opens up its arsenal – Abrams in columns, ATACMS missiles raining down, drones taking off in swarms. What would we see? The Russian front would be shattered, Moscow would panic, and the curtain would fall in the first act.
But no. Instead, it’s a game of “prove you can do it”. A few HIMARS – here you go, a few Javelins – please, Patriot – as a cherry on top. This is no longer about Ukraine’s heroic victory, but about a protracted chokehold: to burn down Soviet warehouses, exhaust the troops, and turn the army into a pile of rusty scrap metal. But not to finish the job. Why? Because chaos is not their genre.
USA: a director with two scripts
The United States has a two-pronged scenario here. The first series is to weaken Russia, to make it a lame beast that growls but does not bite. This plan started with the Trump-era sanctions. The second scenario is to prevent the beast from dying: a nuclear catastrophe or “Somalia” on Europe’s borders is the outcome Washington wants to avoid.
The picture for 2025 is as follows: Russia is a backed into a corner extra with Zhiguli instead of tanks and donkeys instead of logistics. Ukraine is a supporting character: it counterattacks near Pokrovsk, strikes at the enemy’s rear with drones, and prepares its own ballistics. Is it time for a climax? But the US gives the command: “Stop, camera!” Supplies are reduced, intelligence becomes inaccessible, and Washington’s voice sounds like a thriller villain. Russia is weakened exactly as much as they want it to be. What happens next is an open question.
Israel: the master of the background
Israel is a cunning character operating from the shadows. It doesn’t want to be on the front line, but the plot doesn’t move without it. Tel Aviv remains neutral: Sanctions? I haven’t heard of any. Conflict with Moscow? Why? For Israel, Russia is the key to stability in the Middle East. Through its cooperation with Moscow, Israel is holding back Syria, where Iran and Hezbollah are constant enemies.
If Russia falls, Syria will descend into chaos, and Israel will be threatened. The United States understands this. Their “support” for Russia is a signal to Israel: “We have your back”. But a strong Russia supplying weapons to Israel’s enemies is also a threat. A balance is needed: Moscow is alive, but on its knees. And in this game, the United States and Israel are co-authors.
Iran: a dark horse
Iran, an antihero with glowing eyes, enters the scene. For it, Russia is not just an ally, but a shield against the West. Drones, technology, support – Tehran has been in the game from the start. A strong Moscow is its insurance against the US and Israel. But if Russia weakens too much, Iran will be left alone. And here’s the paradox: by saving Moscow, the United States is unwittingly helping Tehran. After all, a weak but alive Russia gives it a chance to maintain a balance. Moscow’s collapse will unleash the hands of Iran’s enemies, which is something Iran does not want. But the American scenario is also painful: the weaker Russia is, the fewer trump cards Tehran has. Thus, the enemies – Washington and Tehran – are suddenly dancing to the same rhythm, saving a common “patient”.
Ukraine: a rebel without a script
Kyiv is a hero who ignores the director. Its war is not about other people’s plans, but about survival and revenge. The goal is not just to defend itself, but to set the old Russia on fire and watch it burn. The United States senses this and is increasing pressure: from “let’s negotiate” to “stop or you will lose”. But Ukraine is breaking all the patterns, moving forward, turning every shell into a challenge.
The author’s concern: what’s next?
These thoughts are like a thorn in my side. How will this chess game end? If Ukraine pushes back and Russia falls, what happens next? Will the Middle East go up in flames like a powder keg? Will Israel and Iran come together in an open battle, all because of the lost balance? Or will Moscow hold out, which will only trigger a new round of confrontation?
China: the silent dragon in the final
Meanwhile, China appears on the horizon – the mysterious player in the end credits. Beijing is silent but watching closely. A strong Russia is beneficial to it. A weak but alive Russia is also beneficial. But the collapse of Russia will bring chaos and the rise of the United States in Asia – a nightmare scenario for Beijing. So it is waiting for its moment to play the main card when the board is turned over.
A climax without a resolution
Who will break the bank? The US has already collected its dividends. But if Ukraine rewrites the ending, everything will go to hell. The board is smoking. The stakes are rising. And I’m sitting there wondering what twist awaits us in the next scene.
Author: Aleksandr Potetiuiev
5 March 2025
