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The victory of pro-Russian candidates in the elections in Romania and Poland could dramatically change the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe, weakening support for Ukraine and undermining the unity of the EU and NATO. One of the key, but little-studied factors contributing to the success of such candidates is the diaspora vote.
Romania: the diaspora as an instrument of Russian influence
Romania, a key NATO ally in the Black Sea region, is facing political turbulence after the 2024 presidential election, which was cancelled due to Russian interference. In 2025, the race was led by Gheorghe Simion, head of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party, who won 40.5% of the vote in the first round of the runoff election on 4 May. His anti-Ukrainian rhetoric against the transit of Ukrainian grain and support for Ukraine resonates with some of the electorate, including the diaspora.
The role of the Romanian diaspora
The Romanian diaspora of around 5 million people, mainly in Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, plays a significant role in elections. According to the Romanian Central Electoral Commission, in 2019, the diaspora accounted for 8% of the total number of voters, and in 2024, its activity increased due to simplified voting procedures abroad. However, it is the diaspora that has become vulnerable to manipulation:
Social media and disinformation: Russian hybrid operations, in particular through TikTok, actively influenced the Romanian diaspora in 2024, promoting pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu. Romanian intelligence (SRI) confirmed that Russia used targeted advertising and fake accounts to spread anti-Western rhetoric. Simion’s populist rhetoric: Simion appeals to diaspora discontent with economic hardship and disconnection from Romanian politics. His slogans of “national sovereignty” and criticism of the EU resonate with those who feel marginalised. Organising the vote: In 2024, AUR actively mobilised the diaspora through its networks in Europe, organising transport to polling stations and social media campaigns. This allowed Simion to gain significant support abroad.
Consequences.
Simion’s victory, bolstered by the diaspora vote, could lead to: Weakening support for Ukraine: Simion opposes military aid to Kyiv and the transit of Ukrainian grain, which threatens Ukraine’s economic interests and its position in negotiations with the EU. Erosion of NATO and EU unity: Simion’s anti-Western policies could bring Romania closer to pro-Russian countries such as Hungary or Slovakia, making it harder to take joint decisions on sanctions against Russia. Internal destabilisation: Simion’s populism, fuelled by diaspora support, could deepen polarisation in a society already affected by protests following the cancellation of the 2024 elections.
Poland: diaspora and anti-Ukrainian sentiments
Poland, one of Ukraine’s most consistent allies, is also facing challenges in its presidential election on 18 May 2025. Candidates include Karol Navrotsky of Law and Justice (PiS) and Slawomir Mencen of the far-right Confederation, both of whom are exploiting anti-Ukrainian sentiment. Although the pro-European Rafał Trzaskowski remains the favourite, the diaspora vote could be decisive.
The role of the Polish diaspora
The Polish diaspora, numbering about 20 million people (of whom 2-3 million are eligible to vote), lives mainly in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Canada. It has traditionally supported conservative forces such as PiS because of its strong commitment to national and Catholic values. In 2020, the diaspora cast 74% of the vote for Andrzej Duda, the PiS candidate.
Anti-Ukrainian rhetoric: Navrotsky and Mencen exploit the dissatisfaction of a part of the diaspora with the presence of Ukrainian refugees (about 1 million people in Poland). They call for limiting social benefits to Ukrainians and reviewing military support for Ukraine, which resonates with those who believe that Poland is “overwhelmed” by external problems. Mobilisation through churches and organisations: Polish diaspora communities, especially in the US and UK, are actively mobilised through Catholic parishes and organisations, which often support PiS. Navrotsky’s campaigns focus on “defending Polish interests”, which resonates with the conservative diaspora. Russian influence: Although there is less direct evidence of Russian interference in the Polish elections than in Romania, pro-Russian narratives of “Ukraine fatigue” are being promoted through far-right channels on Telegram and X, which are popular among the diaspora.
Consequences.
A victory by Navrotsky or Mentsen with the support of the diaspora would have serious consequences: Cooling of relations with Ukraine: Restrictions on social programmes for refugees and cuts in military aid will weaken the strategic partnership with Kyiv. Weakening of positions in the EU: PiS’s policies, backed by support from the diaspora, could reignite conflicts with Brussels over violations of the rule of law, reducing Poland’s influence in the EU. Regional instability: As a key element of NATO’s eastern flank, a Poland with a pro-Russian president could undermine allied confidence, especially against the backdrop of Andrzej Duda’s meetings with George Simion in May 2025.
Common threats and the role of diasporas
The diaspora vote in Romania and Poland reinforces pro-Russian tendencies due to several factors: Vulnerability to disinformation: Disconnected from the daily politics of their countries of origin, diasporas are often targeted by populist and pro-Russian narratives on social media. Conservative bias: Both the Romanian and Polish diasporas gravitate towards conservative and nationalist forces, which are increasingly cooperating with pro-Russian movements such as AUR or Confederation. Mobilisation networks: Organised structures, such as churches, civic associations or party branches, allow for effective engagement of the diaspora in voting for pro-Russian candidates.
Synergistic effect
If pro-Russian candidates win in Romania and Poland, this will have cascading consequences: Fragmentation of the EU and NATO: Both countries are important for the unity of the West. Their departure from the pro-European course could create a “pro-Russian bloc” with Hungary and Slovakia. Economic losses: The revision of the transit of Ukrainian grain will hit the economies of Romania and Poland, and political instability will scare away investors. Increased hybrid attacks: The success of pro-Russian candidates in Romania through manipulation on TikTok signals an increase in Russian hybrid operations that could spread to other countries.
Conclusions and recommendations
The diaspora vote in Romania and Poland has become an important factor in promoting pro-Russian candidates, which threatens the stability of Eastern Europe, support for Ukraine and the unity of the West. To counter this, it is necessary to:
Strengthen protection against disinformation: The EU and national governments should invest in monitoring social media and countering hybrid attacks, especially in diaspora communities. Engage the diaspora in pro-European dialogue: Pro-European parties should work more actively with diasporas, offering constructive programmes instead of populist slogans. Intensify Ukrainian diplomacy: Kyiv should increase communication with the Romanian and Polish diasporas, emphasising Ukraine’s contribution to regional security and economy. Strengthen democratic institutions: Transparency in electoral processes and the fight against foreign interference will help reduce the influence of pro-Russian forces.
The Polish and Romanian elections in 2025 are not only domestic political processes, but also a test of the resilience of European solidarity. Diasporas, which have a significant impact on the outcome, should be aware of their responsibility for the future of the region.
Author: Marianna Nyzhnia
