German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin, Germany, 7 May 2025: PAP/EPA/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE
The new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has chosen Paris and Warsaw for his first foreign visit, demonstrating Berlin’s ambitious reset of foreign policy. This step is not just a symbol, but a declaration of intent: Germany is seeking to regain its role as Europe’s geopolitical leader, balancing the continent’s western and eastern parts.
In Paris, Merz agreed with Emmanuel Macron to revive the Franco-German partnership for the sake of European defence. In Warsaw, he was met by Donald Tusk, who sees the new Berlin as an ally in deterring Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine. This triumvirate – Paris, Warsaw, Berlin – could become a new axis of European politics.
Paris-Warsaw: a new axis for an old continent
Relations between Germany and France under Olaf Scholz were rather formal. Merz wants to change that. He and Macron have announced joint projects in the defence industry, energy security, and the creation of a European rapid response force. “Europe has to be prepared for a world where America is not always there,” Merz said, hinting at a possible isolationist US policy.
After 2022, Poland became an outpost of European security. It expected actions, not words, from Germany. Merz promises partnership: joint investments in defence, coordination of support for Ukraine, and dialogue about historical traumas. “Poland is not the periphery, but the centre of the new Europe,” the chancellor stressed.
Ukraine at the centre: from words to guarantees
The war in Ukraine is a litmus test for Merz’s policy. He stated: “Supporting Ukraine is not only a moral obligation, but also an investment in the security of Europe.” Germany is preparing a new military aid package, including air defence and armoured vehicles, and is considering permanent security guarantees for Kyiv, independent of NATO. Experts suggest that Merz may initiate a European “coalition for Ukraine” with the participation of key EU states and the UK.
European defence: autonomy as a response to uncertainty
Merz is betting on Europe’s strategic autonomy, preparing the continent for a reduced US presence in NATO. Germany supports Macron’s idea of a European rapid reaction force and a joint military-industrial complex. The chancellor proposes to create a National Security Council in Berlin, which will become a “think tank” for European defence. “Germany can no longer be just an economic giant. We must become a security leader,” he stressed.
Migration and transatlanticism: new challenges
Merz is signalling a tougher approach to migration. He has proposed a joint plan with France, Poland and Italy: stronger borders, faster deportations and cooperation with the countries of origin. The move strengthens his position within Germany, where migration is a hot topic.
As for transatlantic relations, Merz wants to maintain ties with the US, but is preparing Europe for independence. “We are grateful to America, but we cannot depend on its moods,” he said.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
Germany’s new course is a chance for Ukraine. Strengthening the Paris-Warsaw-Berlin axis could bring increased military and financial assistance, promotion of security guarantees, lobbying for EU accession, participation in infrastructure rebuilding, and pressure on the US to continue its support.
Germany is waking up
Friedrich Merz is challenging German bureaucracy and the European status quo. His first visit is a bid for leadership in a Europe that is on the verge of new upheavals. Will Merz succeed in uniting Paris, Warsaw and his own coalition in Berlin? For Ukraine, this is a moment of truth: a strong Germany can be a decisive ally in the fight for victory.
Author: Aleksandr Potetiuiev
