WASHINGTON – In a labyrinth of diplomatic manoeuvres where every move reverberates for decades to come, Donald Trump is facing a choice that requires not only political intuition but also intellectual stamina. According to high-level sources in European and American circles familiar with his administration’s negotiations with the Kremlin, the US president will soon have to determine the limits of his strategy – whether to make concessions for peace or to recognise that Russia’s war against Ukraine does not lend itself to his ambitious scenario of a quick ending. This choice can be called a real geopolitical gambit.
The three-day talks in Saudi Arabia, which ended on 25 March 2025, exposed differences that are difficult to hide behind diplomatic language. Moscow declared its readiness for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, but only if sanctions pressure is eased – a proposal that caused restrained annoyance in the American delegation. “Russia declares one thing and does another, and this is no longer just a tactical move, but a challenge,” said one American official, who remains anonymous due to the sensitivity of the process. European partners add a touch of cynicism to the picture: “Putin is playing a chess game where Trump may not yet have realised he is playing white.”
Trump, whose “peace overnight” rhetoric has been the leitmotif of his return to the White House, now faces a reality where the Kremlin dictates the pace. “Russia wants an end to the conflict, but probably only to regroup,” he suggested to Newsmax, inadvertently casting a shadow of doubt. Moscow, meanwhile, is narrowing the negotiating field, demanding not just abstract gestures but concrete dividends – from SWIFT access to unblocking exports – turning the dialogue into an exercise in geo-economic bargaining.
The Black Sea: an elegy for peace
The Saudi talks were supposed to be a prelude to peace in the Black Sea and an end to attacks on energy infrastructure. However, Russia has woven into the agreement a number of conditions that cast doubt on its sincerity. “The Black Sea agreement is not so much peace as it is an attempt by the Kremlin to bargain for space,” said Sergei Markov, an analyst with close access to Russian elites. Officially, Moscow has declared a moratorium on attacks since 18 March, but the reality on the ground contradicts these words.
On Tuesday night, Kryvyi Rih, a city that has become a symbol of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s resilience, shuddered under the largest drone strike since the start of the war. Ochakiv, a port on the Black Sea, was also in the crosshairs. “Since 18 March, we have recorded at least eight attacks on energy facilities,” Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, wrote in X, highlighting the gap between declarations and actions. Zelenskyy, for his part, sees this as a strategic play: “Russia is using Trump’s desire for a deal as a chance to advance its interests where principles should prevail.”
Intelligence versus ambition
Trump has put Russia in a broader geopolitical context by linking it to Iran and China, but this, according to European sources, has only strengthened Putin’s position. “He is avoiding direct pressure, hoping for reciprocity, which is not there,” one diplomat said. The US president faces a dilemma: either sacrifice part of his sanctions arsenal for a deal by 20 April – the date Bloomberg cited as a benchmark – or recognise that the war, now in its fourth year, requires more depth than his negotiating instincts.
In a recent report, US intelligence warns that both Moscow and Kyiv may choose a protracted conflict over a compromise that would not suit either side. This contrasts with Trump’s belief that “both leaders are tired”. “I want to stop the violence and stop spending billions,” he told Newsmax, recalling the pragmatic basis of his policy.
Endgame or pause?
European voices hope that Trump will see Putin’s actions as an unwillingness to make real peace. But his team is not monolithic: some repeat Kremlin talking points, while others insist on firmness. The White House remains silent so as not to destroy the fragile framework of diplomacy.
“Intelligence is the ability to see beyond the obvious, but ambition often leads to the pursuit of illusions,” wrote Alain de Botton in The Consolations of Philosophy. Trump is teetering on this edge. The Black Sea, where drones buzz louder than words of peace, remains a metaphor for this confrontation. The world is waiting to see whether the American leader will be able to rewrite the rules of the game or whether he will be just a player in the game played by the Kremlin.
Author: Marianna Nyzhnia
