Photo: Author: Patrick Blower for The Telegraph
At Time Ukraine Israel, we’re used to seeing geopolitical storms change the world around us. But the Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” 2.0, announced on 2 April 2025, are not just another wave. It is an attempt to destroy globalisation and the liberal order, replacing it with nationalist chaos. The question we are asking ourselves and you, our intelligent readers, is whether this revolution is worth the price – and who will pay it? Ukraine, a country at the forefront of the struggle for survival, may be one of the first victims.
Tectonic shift: from integration to isolation
History shows that economics and geopolitics can go their separate ways – weak markets have sparked wars, and major conflicts have left stock exchanges indifferent. But when the global order is cracked, these two worlds merge into a single whirlpool. We remember how the fall of the Berlin Wall opened the door to prosperity through globalisation. Today, Trump is promising the opposite: from upside to downside, from integration to isolation. His tariffs – 25% on average, the highest in a century – are not just an economic manoeuvre. They are a blow to everything that has held the world together since the Cold War.
This is not an abstraction for Ukraine, which is confronting Russian aggression. For us, alliances and trade are a matter of security, not just profit. Trump wants to destroy both pillars: US alliances and the global economy. His main weapon is not negotiations, but the tariff axe.
The geopolitical price: Ukraine at a crossroads
At Time Ukraine Israel, we cannot ignore how Trump’s tariffs reverberate beyond trade. For Europe, this is the beginning of an economic war with the US – from customs barriers to a conflict over digital regulation. But the most dangerous scenario for us is Trump’s possible deal with Russia over Ukraine. If Washington “pushes through” a compromise that is unacceptable to Kyiv or NATO, the Alliance could collapse. For Ukraine, this will mean not only economic pressure through tariffs – after all, we are absurdly on the list of “guilty”, unlike Russia – but also the loss of a strategic shield. Will Kyiv become a bargaining chip in Trump’s game for “American greatness”?
Economic mirage
Trump promises to re-industrialise the US and “tariff gold” of $600 billion to close the budget deficit. But we at Time Ukraine Israel are sceptical. America is a mature economy, where services have long been replacing manufacturing, just as industry once replaced farms. Tariffs will not turn back the clock. Moreover, the US lives off the dollar as a reserve currency, paying off debts for goods it does not produce. If trading partners abandon dollar assets, this mechanism will collapse – and no amount of tariffs will save it.
And the deficit? Instead of a mountain of gold, the recession triggered by the tariffs will only deepen it – from 6% to 8% of GDP. For Ukraine, this will mean more expensive goods, weaker exports, and even more pressure on our economy, which is already on the brink because of the war.
Chaos as salvation?
This is where the irony lies: Trump’s policy is so poorly thought out that it could destroy itself. The formula for “unfair treatment” of the United States is not an economic model, but a hastily moulded algorithm that includes even deserted islands and Lesotho as “enemies”. Ukraine is under attack, but Russia is not. This absurdity exposed the weakness of the plan: it was destructive in intent but haphazard in execution. At Time Ukraine Israel, we see this as a fragile hope: perhaps the chaos will force Trump to back down before he destroys everything.
What’s next?
But even if Trump leaves, the problem will remain. He is not the cause, but an echo of the populism that has divided America. His successors could be even worse. Globalisation and the liberal order are dead – and for Ukraine, this is not just economic news, but a matter of survival. At Time Ukraine Israel, we have no illusions: there is no turning back. The only question is whether we will be able to adapt to the new world – and at what cost.
Author : Marianna Nyzhnia
