Photo: Sanouni Imad
Time Ukraine Israel
On the morning of 19 March, Istanbul woke up to shocking news: the mayor of the city, Ekrem Imamoglu, one of Turkey’s most promising opposition leaders, was taken into custody. His closest associates were imprisoned along with him. The official charges of corruption and alleged links to terrorist activities came as a bolt from the blue, as the arrest took place on the eve of the People’s Republican Party (CHP) primaries, where Imamoglu had every chance of becoming a presidential candidate. Four days of interrogation, close attention from the global media, mass protests by young people and his official arrest – all of this unfolded against a backdrop of silence from the international community that was hard to ignore. Why have world leaders left Turkey to face this political earthquake alone? The answer lies not only in the internal power struggle, but also in Ankara’s global role as a stabiliser in the midst of crises.
Repression as a style of government
Imamoglu’s arrest is not just an episode in Turkey’s political drama, but the culmination of a long process that increasingly resembles an authoritarian scenario. It all started with a technicality: Imamoglu’s degree, obtained 31 years ago from Istanbul University, was suddenly invalidated due to alleged irregularities during his transfer to a university in Northern Cyprus. This move instantly disqualified him from running for the presidency, even before the court had issued an official ruling. All of this looks like a carefully planned move by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose popularity, according to recent polls, is rapidly declining.
The protests that erupted in Istanbul have become the voice of a younger generation that does not want to put up with repression. But will this momentum be enough? Experts differ in their predictions. Some see Turkey gradually drifting towards the model of Putin’s Russia, but believe that the country’s democratic traditions, the Western values of its youth and the shaky economy can stop this movement. Others are convinced that the protests will fade away, and Imamoglu, like many opposition figures before him, will disappear from the political scene.
This story is not new. In the Kurdish regions of Turkey, such repression is routine. Mayors there are regularly removed and imprisoned, and Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of the Kurdish movement and former presidential candidate, has been behind bars for years. Imamoglu, however, is a different kind of figure, a real threat to Erdogan. But the scheme is the same: charges, arrest, isolation.
Ankara’s geopolitical dance
Why is the world silent? CHP leader Özgür Özel has publicly complained about being isolated by global players, but the answer lies beyond Turkey’s domestic politics. Today, Ankara is a key player in the global chessboard. Stability in Syria, where Turkey controls the Kurdish issue, the reaction to the war in Ukraine, where it balances between Russia and the West, the situation in Gaza, and even the European security architecture depend on its position. All this makes Erdogan indispensable – and untouchable.
On 27 February, Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party and an ally of Erdogan, suggested that the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan dissolve the organisation. This gesture is not just an internal manoeuvre, but a signal to the world: Turkey is ready to bargain, resolve conflicts and remain a bridge between East and West. In this context, Imamoglu’s arrest is perceived as an internal matter that the West is willing to overlook for the sake of strategic partnership.
Two unanswered questions
First, if elections are scheduled for 2028, why is Erdogan acting now? Perhaps he is feeling weak – economic problems, falling ratings, youth discontent. The removal of Imamoglu could be a preemptive strike to avoid a strong competitor in the future. Second, why did world leaders not support the opposition? The answer is simple: geopolitical expediency outweighs the principles of democracy.
The future is at a crossroads
The trial of Imamoglu is unlikely to be quick – the Erdogan government has a firm grip on state institutions. But the crisis goes beyond Turkey. Its trajectory depends on how global players – from Washington to Brussels to Beijing – decide to interact with Ankara. Will Turkey become a Russian-style autocracy, or will it manage to maintain a balance between repression and democracy? For now, the answer is still up in the air, as is the fate of Ekrem Imamoglu, a symbol of resistance who can either become a hero or another victim of the Turkish political machine.
Author : Marianna Nyzhnia
