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22 June 2025 – The United States conducted targeted strikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow, which has raised concerns around the world about a possible escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) provided a detailed analysis of the strikes, their consequences for Iran’s nuclear programme and potential scenarios.
A blow to Iran’s nuclear programme
According to Dr Burchu Ozcelik, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Studies, the US strikes have dealt an unprecedented blow to Iran’s reputation for failing to protect its nuclear programme. “Iran is facing a difficult dilemma: to retaliate and risk a wider war or to pause to consolidate its forces at home,” she said. Ozcelik stressed that de-escalation could allow the regime to focus on domestic stability, but inaction could undermine Tehran’s credibility after years of promises to protect its nuclear programme.
She also warned that the mobilisation of proxy forces in Iraq or Yemen could provoke a harsh US response, while an attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz could cause a global economic shock. “Tehran’s next step will determine whether this war will expand or end in an unstable, albeit temporary, containment,” Ozcelik added.
Military and technical aspects
Matthew Saville, Director of Military Science, noted that the US operation was unique in its power, as only US B-2 bombers refuelled in the air could carry out such strikes. “The Fordo site, located under a mountain, makes it difficult to assess damage, so the US and Israel rely on intelligence from inside Iran,” he explained. Reports of the use of high explosive munitions in Natanz indicate an intention to destroy uranium enrichment facilities.
Saville also drew attention to Iran’s vulnerability: “If Iran chooses a broader military response, it has targets in the region – in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq or Saudi Arabia – but that could expand the conflict significantly.” He added that Iranian ballistic missiles have already been used against Israel, but that its stockpile of cruise missiles remains a significant threat.
Limiting military strikes
Daria Dolzikova, Senior Research Fellow for Nuclear Policy, stressed that military action can only partially weaken Iran’s nuclear programme, but not destroy it completely. “The key question is how much the strikes have weakened the programme and how they have affected Iran’s determination to develop nuclear weapons,” she said. Damage to the Fordow facility, which enriches uranium to 60%, could be a serious blow, but the exact damage assessment is not yet known.
Dolzikova also pointed out that Iran has probably moved its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to secret fortified locations and may also have secret facilities to continue nuclear development. “Iran’s nuclear programme is based on many years of experience, which cannot be destroyed by strikes or assassinations of scientists,” she stressed.
Risks of escalation and wider implications
RUSI experts agree that Iran’s reaction will be decisive. Dolzikova noted that Tehran could announce its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), citing “extraordinary circumstances”. This could lead to a loss of international control over Iran’s nuclear programme and provoke an arms race in the region.
Ozcelik stressed that further Israeli strikes, especially against the regime’s infrastructure, could convince Tehran that the West’s goal is regime change, not containment. This could strengthen Iran’s resolve and push the conflict into a more dangerous phase. “Particular attention should be paid to the internal cohesion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the decision-making process around Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,” she added.
The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities were a significant blow to Tehran’s ambitions, but did not resolve the strategic dilemma. As Iran weighs its options – from a military response to diplomatic steps such as withdrawal from the NPT – the world is closely watching to see whether these developments will lead to a wider war or a temporary lull. RUSI experts call for a cautious approach to avoid uncontrolled escalation, which could have catastrophic consequences for the region and the world.
Source: RUSI
Author: Aleksandr Potetiuiev
