The international community is watching with concern the transformation of the US foreign policy course. Its flirtation with the Kremlin, harsh criticism of NATO, and increasingly frank statements about its unwillingness to support allies without additional cost are causing deep concern among countries that have lived under the protection of the US nuclear umbrella for decades.
But today, this umbrella may be folded.
According to Financial Times analysts, a new wave of strategic uncertainty in Washington could trigger global rearmament. The main taboo after the Second World War – nuclear weapons as a means of self-defence – is returning to politics.
A turning point for the NPT
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), signed in 1968, kept the global security system in relative balance. It officially recognised five nuclear powers: The United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom. Unofficially, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea have long been members of the nuclear club.
Today, analysts are talking about the possible destruction of the very foundation of the NPT. If the United States no longer guarantees the security of its allies, 15-25 countries could acquire nuclear arsenals. And this is not a theoretical scenario, but a serious concern for military headquarters in Berlin, Seoul or Tokyo.
“Trump’s policy is a catalyst. It is awakening in the US allies a desire for independence in the most radical forms,” says Ankit Panda, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analyst and author of The New Nuclear Age.
Europe, Asia and… the nuclear alternative
Germany, Poland, South Korea, Japan – countries that have historically avoided nuclear weapons for political or moral reasons – are now reconsidering their position. In Germany, for the first time in decades, voices are being raised about the need for a “nuclear European umbrella” independent of Washington. In Poland, there are discussions about nuclear weapons within NATO. In South Korea, there are open debates about building a national nuclear capability.
All of these trends are intensifying against the backdrop of systemic distrust of the United States: what happens if America does not come to the rescue at a critical moment? In a world where security is no longer collective, states are forced to rely on themselves – and this opens the door to the most dangerous scenario of the 21st century.
What will happen next?
Nuclear weapons are not just a technology, they are a political explosion. Each new country in the nuclear club is another centre of instability. One miscalculation, one communication error, and the world could be on the brink of disaster.
Today, the world community is facing a question: can the global security architecture be saved if one of its main architects decides to withdraw from the project?
In these conditions, Ukraine and Israel, as states that constantly live in the shadow of an existential threat, demonstrate examples of how to survive in chaos. But will these examples be enough when dozens of countries start building their own nuclear buttons?
The world is indeed entering a new nuclear age. And if Washington finally loses its desire to be a guarantor of stability, the question will not be who has the weapons, but who will be the first to use them.
Author:Marianna Nyzhnia
