The war in Ukraine, which has been ongoing since February 2022, has entered a new phase following a change in US policy under President Donald Trump. The latest official data from the US Department of State, published on 30 December 2024 in the US Security Cooperation with Ukraine newsletter, shows that the Joe Biden administration has provided Ukraine with military assistance worth more than $61 billion, including weapons, equipment and training for more than 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers in Germany. These resources were supposed to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with supplies until the end of 2025. However, after Trump’s inauguration on 20 January 2025, the US suspended intelligence sharing and froze new aid packages, putting pressure on Kyiv to start negotiations with Moscow. This change significantly affected the situation on the frontline.
US pressure: official data and context
According to the State Department bulletin of 30 December 2024, the US transferred “equipment necessary to defend against Russian aggression” to Ukraine, including artillery, drones and air defence systems. However, with the arrival of Trump, the policy changed. In a speech on 15 February 2025 at an investment forum in Miami, Trump said: “Ukraine has received billions from us, but has not fulfilled its obligations.” He hinted at access to Ukrainian resources as a condition for further support, although he did not name any specific deals.
The latest State Department report of 3 March 2025, available on the official website, states that the White House has ordered the development of “scenarios for ending the state of emergency with respect to Ukraine”. A source in the administration clarified that partial easing of sanctions against Russia is being considered to stimulate negotiations. These moves have raised concerns in Kyiv, where they fear that the US may sacrifice Ukrainian interests for its own goals.
The situation at the front: the realities of March 2025
In eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk region, Russian troops are advancing. Ukrainian sources report that since the beginning of 2025, Russia has regained about 60 per cent of the territory of Kursk region, which was seized by the Ukrainian armed forces in August 2024 during a surprise offensive. The absence of US intelligence, previously provided in real time via satellites and drones, is making defence difficult. “We have lost our eyes in the sky,” a Ukrainian armed forces officer with the call sign “Skhid” was quoted in the local press.
In the south, the situation is more stable, but the lack of long-range systems such as ATACMS missiles limits the Ukrainian armed forces’ ability to attack Russia’s rear. The Ukrainian military estimates that the supplies received from the US by the end of 2024 could be exhausted by the summer of 2025 if aid does not resume.
Reaction of Ukraine and its allies
On 1 March 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a televised address: “We are ready to negotiate, but the peace must be fair.” This was a response to US pressure, although no official terms have been made public by Washington. According to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on 28 February 2025, 68% of Ukrainians oppose Russia’s concessions, including the loss of territory.
European partners are trying to compensate for the deficit. Germany, which as of December 2024 had allocated 28 billion euros (according to the State Department), plans to supply IRIS-T air defence systems in 2025. However, European resources will not replace American high-precision technologies, especially in intelligence.
What’s next?
Trump has repeatedly promised to “end the war in 24 hours”, but there are no details of the plan. Analysts speculate that he may demand concessions from Ukraine in the form of territory in exchange for a ceasefire. Russia, according to Ukrainian sources, is in no hurry to negotiate, counting on the exhaustion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
On the frontline, the fighters remain determined. “We are fighting for our land, and no one will force us to surrender,” a soldier said in an interview on 7 March 2025. However, without American support or a breakthrough in diplomacy, the coming months could be critical. A State Department report on 3 March warned: “Further escalation of the conflict threatens stability in the region.”
The future of the war depends on whether Washington returns its support or whether Kyiv finds a way to stand on its own. For now, the frontline is holding, but the price is getting higher.
Author: Aleksandr Potetiuiev
