Emmanuel Macron. Photo: Thibault Camus / AP
French voters mobilized again to prevent far-right leader Marine Le Pen from coming to power. However, the election results ended chaotically: no party won enough seats to secure a majority in parliament, leading to a political crisis in France that could last for months.
Macron called for snap elections in June to curb Le Pen’s rising popularity. However, her party gained 50 more seats than in 2022, while the president’s liberal coalition faltered, reports Politico.eu.
Macron’s Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, announced his resignation, but it’s unclear who will take his place.
This hasn’t dampened the mood of the French president. During a private meeting with his allies on Sunday evening, Macron remained optimistic, telling them, “Our ideas are still alive, and [we] have not lost voters,” according to a person present at the meeting.
With French politics on the brink of crisis, here are five things you need to know:
Governing France Will Be Difficult and Complex
The 577-seat National Assembly, the lower house of the French legislature, is highly fragmented: it is divided among the left, centrists, and far-right. No group comes close to forming a majority, each having fewer than 200 deputies.
“It’s impossible to govern France without 240-250 deputies,” said Sylvain Maillard, a deputy from Macron’s Renaissance party.
Despite an agreement between Macron’s left-wing alliance and the liberals to work together tactically to prevent the far-right coalition from winning the National Assembly elections, cohabitation between these groups to govern France seems unlikely.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a veteran of the far-left, ruled out governing with the president’s liberals. Macron’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal also stated that he would never share power with Mélenchon.
On Sunday evening, Attal allowed the formation of a temporary government to ensure some stability in the country, which will host the Olympic Games later this month.
Any Government Formed is Unlikely to Remain Stable
This autumn’s budget negotiations will be the first major challenge. France is under pressure to cut its deficit after missing targets earlier this year. There are many issues on which the left, liberals, and far-right will never agree. Fiscal policy is at the top of the list.
Le Pen is Down but Not Out
After the first round of voting, Le Pen’s coalition was poised to gain power for the first time in history. This dream was shattered on Sunday evening when Macron’s centrists and the left-wing alliance collaborated to keep the far-right at bay, much to the delight of pro-Europeans.
Despite the bitterness of the defeat in this second round, Le Pen’s party increased its number of deputies in the National Assembly. How long can the establishment keep them from power?
Le Pen’s movement is the “big winner of the elections,” said Benjamin Morel, a political analyst at Pantheon-Assas University, Paris.
This gives Le Pen a strong position ahead of her likely run in the French presidential elections when Macron retires in 2027. “They have the perfect argument: they can say their victory was stolen and that they are the real alternative,” Morel said.
Macron’s Gamble Was Different, but It Could Have Been Worse
A week ago, it seemed Macron was heading for disaster; his decision to wait did not only fail to stop Le Pen but also put her party on the verge of power.
By Sunday evening, his centrist coalition had avoided the worst, remaining a parliamentary force, albeit a smaller one, while Le Pen’s party seemed unscathed. But the reality is that the far-right is now stronger, and the liberals weaker, ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
“Macron has opened Pandora’s box; the country is dissatisfied with Macronism and wants a new type of political affiliation.”
Before the snap elections, the president led the largest group in parliament. Now he is likely to work with an opposition politician as prime minister. His authority at home and trust abroad have been undermined.
According to Alberto Alemanno, a professor at HEC Paris, Macron was right to call for early elections, even if they didn’t end as expected. “I see a lot of hidden tensions in France, many issues that haven’t been resolved,” he said. “He opened Pandora’s box; the country is dissatisfied with Macronism and wants a new type of political affiliation.”
Mélenchon Won’t Govern
If there was a winner, it was the leftist veteran Mélenchon, who called on Macron to appoint a left-wing prime minister to bring his movement to power.
“We are ready for this,” Mélenchon said. Having run for president three times, he hinted he wouldn’t mind becoming France’s prime minister himself.
This won’t happen.
A highly passionate figure, Mélenchon is considered toxic by many politicians due to his admiration for Latin American leaders, his tirades, and attacks on opponents. Recently, critics accused him of flirting with anti-Semitism when he downplayed attacks on Jews in France.
Mélenchon can’t even convince other parties in the loose left-wing alliance he is part of to bring him to power.
The left-wing coalition under the banner of the New Popular Front seems disorganized. Its leaders sent conflicting messages about their goals on Sunday evening.
While Mélenchon declared that the left would implement “our manifesto, nothing but our manifesto,” MEP Raphael Glucksmann, leader of a smaller party in the alliance, appeared more conciliatory, suggesting “to discuss and change the political culture.”
What Could Emerge From This Delicate Situation?
There is no simple answer. With no party winning decisively, the president is likely to bide his time, giving parties room to discuss forming a coalition.
Macron could then appoint a left-wing figure to form a government, given that the left has become the largest group in parliament.
The Socialist Party does not entirely rule out forming a broader coalition, but it is unlikely that Mélenchon’s party would agree to be part of it.
Alternatively, Macron could appoint a caretaker government, keeping Attal as prime minister. He might even adopt the Italian model and appoint a technocratic group of experts. Such an administration would refrain from ambitious plans and focus on keeping the state running.
A limited administration like this would rely on a tacit agreement between seemingly diametrically opposed sides to calm financial markets and international partners.
However, a caretaker or technocratic government “risks disappointing from a democratic standpoint,” warned political analyst Morel. “The French voted massively, the center was defeated, and if it ends with Attal remaining as prime minister, it won’t be good for French democracy.”
