Donald Trump. Foto: Charly Triballeau/AP
After the Cold War, global denuclearization seemed a realistic goal, but today even non-proliferation of nuclear weapons appears to be a false hope, writes Belgian publication 7SUR7.
Last month, reports from various NGOs confirmed the increase in budgets allocated for nuclear weapons among the countries that possess them. It is increasingly likely that a tenth country in the world will decide to equip itself with this ultimate weapon. This country is South Korea. The issue of military nuclear power has been debated there for years and resurfaces with each provocation from neighboring North Korea. According to a new survey by the Korea Institute for National Unification, 66% of respondents are “favorable” or “very favorable” to a South Korean nuclear weapon. This is a record and 6% more than the same survey conducted last year.
The Trump Factor
Since the announcement of the withdrawal of American forces from South Korea in the 1970s, the issue of nuclear weapons has been regularly raised, as Seoul has never signed a peace agreement with Pyongyang. The United States Forces Korea, which total nearly 30,000 soldiers, still remain in the region. However, the nuclear issue truly came to the forefront in 1991 when Washington announced the withdrawal of American missiles still present in foreign bases.
The North Korean nuclear program, with each new test, has gradually changed public opinion. The final nail in the coffin of the peninsula’s denuclearization treaties, which North Korea evidently no longer adheres to, was driven by Donald Trump.
From the beginning of his first term, President Trump expressed hostility towards maintaining American forces abroad. If he questioned the US’s commitment to NATO, he also wanted to reduce deployments in Asia, including missile defense systems, which he deemed too expensive. Journalist Bob Woodward, in his book “Fear: Trump in the White House” published in 2018, discusses this obsession of Trump’s at length. Advisors at the time tried to explain that an American withdrawal from the South could be interpreted as a sign of an imminent attack from the North.
According to the Financial Times, there is a clear correlation between support for a South Korean nuclear program and the fear that Trump might return to the White House. As this prospect becomes increasingly realistic, 11% more respondents than last year consider nuclear weapons preferable to American commitments.
Changing Public Opinion
South Korea has the means to launch a military nuclear program. It is one of the countries that have so far decided to abstain. But that could change very quickly. Han Duck-soo, the current Prime Minister, assured again last month that this choice is not on the agenda. But Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon ardently supports the nuclear option and is a presumed candidate in the 2027 presidential elections, notes the British daily.
“Nuclear weapons can only be countered with nuclear weapons,” Oh Se-hoon recently emphasized again. “Relying solely on cooperation between South Korea and the United States under the American nuclear umbrella places significant limitations on our security.”
“Mutual Assistance” Between Moscow and Pyongyang
The global context fuels this sense of insecurity for the country. Not only might Trump return to the White House, but South Koreans are also witnessing the rapprochement between North Korea and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Pyongyang and Moscow are now united by a treaty that includes a clause of “mutual assistance.” This effectively creates security guarantees for a North Korea that has enshrined its status as a nuclear-armed state in its constitution. Because a preemptive strike against its program could mean Russia entering the war.
The nuclear club currently includes five countries according to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China). This list is supplemented by three more countries that have acknowledged having warheads but have not signed the treaty: India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Israel, which has never officially recognized that it possesses them, should also be considered. Therefore, a tenth country could join these nine, and although it was long thought to be Iran, South Korea could very well take a place in the race.
