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Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.7% in 2025, down 0.9% from 2024. This was announced by Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Andriy Teliupa at a roundtable discussion, Reuters reports.
Teliupa noted that the government will continue to allocate billions of hryvnias to support Ukrainian businesses to help them adapt to the challenges caused by the war.
Economic consequences of the war
Russia’s full-scale invasion, which began in February 2022, has dealt a serious blow to Ukraine’s economy. Millions of people have been forced to flee the country, and numerous cities and infrastructure have been destroyed, severely hampering exports, logistics and supply chains.
In 2022, Ukraine’s GDP fell by almost 30%. Although growth was 5.3% in 2023 and the pace of recovery slowed in 2024, the economy remains well below pre-war levels.
Forecast for 2025
According to Teliupa, economic growth slowed in the last quarter of 2024, but no exact figures were provided. The Ministry of Economy predicts that GDP growth in 2025 will be 2.7%, which is lower than the expectations of Ukrainian economists, who predicted 3-4%.
The impact of the war on the economy
Ukraine is on the defensive along more than 1,000 kilometres of frontline. Russian troops continue to advance in the Donetsk region, causing damage to local infrastructure and communities.
In addition to military challenges, Ukrainian businesses are facing a shortage of labour due to the mobilisation of tens of thousands of men and the mass migration of millions of citizens abroad.
Another factor is the energy crisis caused by Russia’s intense shelling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. As a result, electricity generation capacity has been halved, leading to regular power outages.
