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From 15 to 17 June, the G7 leaders’ summit will take place in Kananaskis, Canada, where the possible reduction of the price ceiling for Russian oil to $30 per barrel will be among the key topics discussed. This was reported by Oleksandr Khara, an expert at the Centre for Defence Strategies, in a commentary to Ukrinform.
The limit is now at $60
Currently, the price ceiling for Russian oil exports is $60 per barrel. According to Hara, the Ukrainian side is calling for tougher energy sanctions:
“Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga has already mentioned the price of $30 as a desirable limit. Even if this decision is not adopted, the very fact of the discussion is already a positive signal,” the expert said.
Participation of Saudi Arabia and India – factors of influence
The participation of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi could have a significant impact on the oil market:
- Saudi Arabia could potentially increase production, which would lower global prices.
- India, one of the main buyers of Russian oil, will be able to buy it even cheaper if the ceiling is lowered.
Trump and his “naive policy” towards Russia
Hara warns that US President Donald Trump, a likely candidate for re-election, is taking a soft line on the Kremlin, which reduces the likelihood of tough decisions by the G7 in the final declaration:
“Trump believes that Russia can help the US on Iran, but this is an illusion,” the analyst said.
Even a partial reduction in the price ceiling is beneficial for Ukraine
Even if it is not possible to agree on $30, any reduction will undermine Russia’s oil revenues, forcing the Kremlin to spend its reserves more actively.
