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On Friday, 21 February, oil prices remained stable, but end the week with more than 2% growth amid improved demand forecasts in the US and China. This is reported by Reuters with reference to market data.
Futures for Brent crude oil fell by 3 cents to $76.45 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 4 cents to $72.44. Both indices are up more than 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since early January. Brent is showing the second consecutive week of growth after three weeks of decline, while WTI is returning to positive dynamics for the first time in a month.
According to JPMorgan analysts, the average global demand for oil by 19 February was 103.4 million barrels per day, up 1.4 million bpd from the previous period. Experts predict further growth in demand next week due to cold weather in the US and the revival of industry in China after the holiday season.
Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil stocks in the country increased, while gasoline and distillate stocks decreased. The reason for this was seasonal maintenance of refineries, which reduced the level of refining. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, noted that the decline in US stockpiles, as well as concerns about limited oil supplies from Russia, keep prices high on the market.
The market situation is further complicated by geopolitical factors. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg that Russia could expect some sanctions relief if it is ready to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. At the same time, oil supply disruptions continue to affect the market.
In particular, Russia reported a 30-40% reduction in oil transportation through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) as a result of a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. However, Kazakhstan, despite the damage to its main export route through Russia, pumped record volumes of oil, which demonstrates its desire to maintain its market position.
Thus, the oil industry is entering the new week with optimism about demand, but with increased risks associated with geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.
