Oil is falling in price again on world markets due to signs of declining demand in China amid an unstable economic recovery. According to Reuters, on Friday, 15 November, Brent crude oil prices fell by 65 cents (0.9%) to $71.91 per barrel, while WTI futures fell by 62 cents (0.9%) to $68.08.
Weekly price drop
Brent may lose up to 2.7% this week, and WTI – 3.3%. These figures indicate that the negative dynamics in the oil market will continue.
Factors affecting prices
- China’s uneven economic recovery:
Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show that in October, the country’s refineries processed 4.6% less crude oil than in the same period last year. This is the seventh consecutive month of decline, driven by lower activity at independent refineries and the closure of some facilities. - Supply outlook:
Analysts note that rising supply from the US and OPEC+ countries, together with doubts about the recovery in key markets, continue to put pressure on prices. - Expert comment:
IG market strategist Yep Jun Rong noted that although prices have stabilised at $71, “the lack of significant catalysts for growth suggests a tepid recovery outlook”.
Market forecasts
The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, even if OPEC+ production cuts continue. At the same time:
- The demand growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 920 thousand barrels per day.
- In 2025, demand is expected to grow slightly at 990 kbpd.
The pressure on the oil market is growing due to volatile demand in China and forecasts of oversupply. This is forcing oil-producing countries to revise their strategies to stabilise the market.
