The World Bank sounds the alarm: Ukraine’s economy is growing slower than expected
Ukraine’s economic growth in 2024 reached only 3.5%, while the forecast for 2025 is 2%. Both figures are lower than the expectations previously published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This is stated in the updated World Economic Outlook (WEO), which was presented in Washington by IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gorinchas, Ukrinform reports.
Key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine according to the IMF:
- 2024: GDP growth of 3.5% (previously forecast at 4%)
- 2025: GDP growth of 2% (against 2.5-3.5% in the November forecast)
- 2026: expected recovery – 4.5% growth
Inflation, unemployment and trade balance:
- Inflation:
▫️ 2023 – 6.5 per cent
▫️ 2024 – forecast 12.6%
▫️ 2026 – 7.7% - Current account balance:
▫️ 2023 – -7.0 per cent
▫️ 2024 – -15.9%
▫️ 2026 – -10.6 per cent - Unemployment:
▫️ 2024 – 13.1 per cent
▫️ 2025 – 11.6 per cent
▫️ 2026 – 10.2 per cent
What does this mean?
The IMF explicitly points out that the pace of Ukraine’s economic recovery is not in line with early expectations, despite the continued macro-financial support from its partners. Key constraints remain:
- Prolonged war and uncertainty
- Destruction of infrastructure
- Slow recovery in investment activity
- High inflation and balance of payments deficit
“This is not only a Ukrainian reality – the global economy is also slowing down,” Gorinchas said.
