Photo: Depositphotos
European military giants are preparing to take the fate of continental security into their own hands. According to the Financial Times, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Nordic countries are engaged in informal but structured talks to strengthen Europe’s defence capabilities amid the threat of the United States leaving NATO, a scenario that has been repeatedly voiced by Donald Trump.
According to the four European officials, it is not just a matter of increasing spending, but of redistributing key military and financial responsibilities to make Europe less dependent on the US shield. The ultimate goal is to present the US plan before the June NATO summit in The Hague and convince Washington to agree to a gradual transfer of powers.
This manoeuvre is designed to avoid a chaotic gap in transatlantic security. The United States, which currently provides the majority of the Alliance’s military capabilities – from nuclear deterrence to infrastructure and the presence of 80,000 troops in Europe – remains indispensable. However, there is a growing realisation in Europe that it is time to take responsibility.
“Increasing defence spending is the only way,” said one senior EU official. But the scale of this task is daunting: it is estimated that it would take five to ten years of additional investment to reach a level that would allow for the replacement of the main components of the US presence (excluding the nuclear arsenal).
European governments are already responding. Some states are accelerating previously announced plans to increase defence budgets, and the EU has initiated new mechanisms to support defence investment. At the same time, there are doubts whether Washington will agree, even if Trump is re-elected, to a complete change in the balance of power in the Alliance.
According to the new vision, the UK and other Atlantic maritime powers will play a key role in the continent’s security in the west, Northern Europe in the north, and Turkey in the southeast. All of them remain part of NATO, but now have the ambition to be more active.
It is not just about defence, it is about Europe’s new strategic maturity. And the first step towards it has already been taken.
