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Against the backdrop of the recent negotiations in Saudi Arabia, the real contours of a possible compromise between Ukraine and Russia are gradually emerging. The Sunday Times analyses what Vladimir Putin is and is not prepared to give up in order to end the fighting – or at least to pause it temporarily. But the main question remains unanswered: is the United States, Kyiv’s main strategic ally, ready to persuade Ukraine to compromise?
“A step towards a ceasefire” – or towards a war freeze?
US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said that the parties are “one step away from a full ceasefire”. However, this step is fraught with political and military landmines. Among the key topics is the prohibition of strikes on critical infrastructure, including power plants and oil storage facilities, which are increasingly being targeted by Ukrainian drones.
Having lost a significant part of the Black Sea Fleet – including the Moskva flagship in April 2022 – the Russians are trying to protect the rest of the fleet and energy facilities. At the same time, Russian troops have not stopped their assaults on the land front, which casts doubt on the sincerity of their negotiating intentions.
Fear of returning to ‘Minsk’
Ukraine does not want another “frozen conflict” that would allow Russia to regroup and strike again. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed that a repeat of the Minsk agreements is unacceptable. Kyiv demands real international monitoring and guarantees that will make it impossible for the Kremlin to retaliate.
Meanwhile, Moscow is trying to limit intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the West and is categorically opposed to the presence of any NATO troops on Ukrainian territory.
NATO – without an army, but with a presence?
Western capitals are discussing the possibility of establishing NATO training bases in western Ukraine, especially in the regions west of the Dnipro River. These are not combat units, but rather “stabilisation forces” that would provide security, patrols and training.
This scenario allows the West to maintain influence and presence in Ukraine without direct confrontation with Russia. However, readiness for this format remains low: many countries fear an escalation of the conflict to an open clash between NATO and Russia.
Is the front line a new border?
One of the most controversial topics is the temporary fixation of the front line as a de facto border, with the status of the occupied territories uncertain. The idea has its supporters in the West, but is categorically rejected by Ukraine.
For President Zelenskyy, any “legitimisation” of the actual line of contact is an admission of defeat and an open path to the “Syrian scenario”, where the conflict has been smouldering for years without resolution.
Conclusion: compromise or surrender?
The current negotiations in Riyadh show: Moscow wants a respite, but not peace, and the West is looking for a model that will stop the war without openly confronting Putin. In this context, the US position will be decisive. If Washington starts putting pressure on Kyiv to compromise, it could change the course of the entire war – and not necessarily towards peace.
After all, a compromise without justice is not peace. It is just another tactical manoeuvre that could lead to another war.
