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Against the backdrop of a series of powerful air strikes on Syrian territory, Israel is facing a new strategic dilemma: a possible worsening of relations with Turkey. According to The Jerusalem Post, the recent strikes on Hama, the T-4 airbase, and the outskirts of Damascus were not only aimed at destroying the remnants of Iranian military infrastructure, but also served as an indirect warning to Ankara.
According to sources, Israel is seeking to deter Turkey from attempting to gain a foothold in Syrian airspace, in particular near the strategically important T-4 base, a facility that was previously actively used by Iranian forces and their allies.
But the main question arises: is Israel, which is already waging a war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, striking Hezbollah in Lebanon and is in a state of confrontation with Iran, ready to open another front in Syria?
New geopolitical realities
In recent years, the main threat to Israel in Syria has been Iran, which has been creating a logistics corridor to supply weapons to Hezbollah. However, after the partial withdrawal of Iranian troops and the strengthening of the Bashar al-Assad regime, the situation has changed. Turkey, which already has a military presence in northern Syria and supports the Syrian opposition, in particular the Syrian National Army (SNA), is coming to the fore.
According to analysts, Ankara may seek to modernise Syrian military bases and expand its influence in the region. This is a cause for concern in Jerusalem: Turkish reinforcements near Israel’s borders could create a new zone of instability.
Risk of escalation and diplomatic consequences
Unlike Iran, Turkey is a full-fledged regional player with a powerful army, a developed defence sector, NATO support and active diplomacy. A potential conflict with Ankara would be much more complicated than strikes on Iranian targets or fighting proxy groups.
Moreover, Israeli air strikes in Syria could have the opposite effect: Damascus, fearing new attacks, may move closer to Turkey in an attempt to gain military and political support. Thus, Israel’s actions may not deter Ankara, but rather stimulate a new tactical alliance.
Jerusalem’s new approach
After the 7 October terrorist attacks, Israel dramatically changed its approach to security, from a limited strategy of “deterrence” to an aggressive policy of pre-emption. The latest air strikes in Syria demonstrate an attempt to destroy potential threats before they are finalised. However, in a situation where troops are already engaged in the south and north of the country, opening another front is a serious strategic burden.
If Israel really changes its main adversary in Syria, switching from Iran to Turkey, it will be a decision that will have far-reaching consequences – not only military, but also diplomatic. In this case, Israel is entering the game with a much stronger opponent, which will require new resources, a new strategy and readiness for a long confrontation.
