Hamas/Photo: open source
In the evening of 20 March, the last phase of the first stage of the agreement between Israel and Hamas on the release of hostages was completed. In exchange for the bodies of four dead Israelis returned from Gaza, Israel released about 600 Palestinian prisoners.
This agreement was supposed to be part of a gradual exchange process, but negotiations on further stages have become much more complicated. Hamas insists on changing the ratio of the exchange, demanding the release of more Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli hostage. At the same time, the negotiators are trying to find a compromise to achieve at least a partial extension of the agreement.
This is reported by Time Ukraine Israel, citing the Detaly news portal.
Political pressure on Netanyahu
Public opinion in Israel is increasingly inclined to the need to extend the agreement, even at the cost of difficult concessions, in order to return all hostages, dead and alive. The massive funeral of the Bibas family, the return of the bodies and the stories of the released hostages about the horrific conditions of detention only increase this pressure.
However, Netanyahu is caught between two fires. His right-wing allies in the government, in particular the Religious Zionist party, are demanding that the fighting resume as soon as possible. The prime minister has repeatedly stated that the war will continue, but he has a limited window for decision-making – he must ensure the adoption of the state budget by the end of March to avoid a political crisis.
The US and Saudi Arabia: a game-changer
President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Whitkoff, continues to put pressure on both sides to reach an agreement. Trump himself has said that the decision on the further development of the situation is in Netanyahu’s hands.
However, the US position is influenced by another factor – Saudi Arabia. Washington is still seeking to conclude a large-scale agreement that will include the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This process involves ending the war in Gaza, and Netanyahu has set a condition: first, the complete destruction of Hamas.
What’s next? War or a new compromise?
If new agreements are not reached, the war in Gaza could resume in the near future. The new IDF Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, has already developed an operational plan that envisages a large-scale military offensive to finally weaken Hamas. However, the risks of such a scenario are extremely high: the death of hostages and significant losses among the military could make this step politically unpopular.
On the other hand, Hamas is interested in maintaining control over the Gaza Strip, even if it has to accept the establishment of a technocratic government with the participation of international institutions. The decisive factor will be the position of the United States: whether it will continue to support Netanyahu or put pressure to end the war.
The coming days could be critical for the entire Middle East policy. If no compromise is found, the region will once again be on the verge of a new round of large-scale conflict.
