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A new report by the Royal United Services Institute(RUSI) entitled “Nuclear Facilities as Targets of Military Attack ” examines the growing threat to nuclear facilities in the context of military conflicts, in particular against the backdrop of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The study, prepared by Senior Research Fellow Daria Dolzikova, analyses the reasons why states may use military force against nuclear facilities, the consequences of such actions, and offers recommendations for mitigating risks.
Context and relevance
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 drew attention to the vulnerability of nuclear facilities in conflict zones. The occupation of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) by Russian troops became a vivid example of how nuclear facilities can become targets of military operations. However, the threat is not new: history knows numerous cases when nuclear facilities have been considered as potential targets or attacked, in particular for the purpose of counter-proliferation.
The growing interest in nuclear energy as a source of clean energy, as well as the weakening of nuclear non-proliferation norms, increase the likelihood that nuclear facilities could become targets or accidental casualties of future military action. The RUSI report highlights the need for political and military planning to prevent such scenarios.
Why are nuclear facilities targeted?
The study identifies five main contexts in which nuclear facilities may be attacked or threatened:
- Counterproliferation: Military attacks on nuclear facilities are often used to prevent the development of nuclear weapons. Historical examples show that such attacks have limited effectiveness, but can be aimed at destroying a programme, slowing its progress, or demonstrating resolve.
- Energy influence: In the case of the Zaporizhzhya NPP, Russia likely sought not only to seize the facility, but also to disrupt Ukraine’s energy supply and subsequently use it for its own purposes. Attacks on energy infrastructure are part of the military doctrine of many countries, and the growing role of nuclear energy may make such facilities attractive targets.
- Denial of access: Attacks on nuclear facilities can be used to create radiological or chemical contamination, making it difficult for an adversary to operate. However, the effectiveness of such tactics is limited by the ability of armies to operate in contaminated environments and the unpredictable spread of radioactive substances.
- Escalation and intimidation: The threat of attacks on nuclear facilities can be used as an instrument of psychological pressure, creating fear among the population through associations with radiation hazards. Such actions can be seen as an “intermediate step” between conventional and nuclear war.
- Accidental involvement: Nuclear facilities may be on the line of advance of troops or in the area of air campaigns, requiring armies to be specially trained to operate safely in such environments.
Consequences and risks
Attacks on nuclear facilities pose serious threats to civilians, the environment and international security. Even attacks on ancillary systems, such as power or water supply to nuclear power plants, can cause accidents with catastrophic consequences. In addition, radiological contamination can cross borders, threatening to escalate conflict and involve third countries.
Recommendations
The RUSI report suggests a number of measures to mitigate the risks, including:
- Strengthening international norms and agreements on the protection of nuclear facilities in wartime.
- Development of military doctrines that provide for safe interaction with nuclear facilities in conflict zones.
- Improving the readiness of national services to respond to nuclear safety incidents.
- Improved information exchange between states and international organisations for early detection of threats.
RUSI’s study emphasises that military attacks on nuclear facilities should not become the norm, but require close attention from political and military leaders. As global dependence on nuclear energy grows and geopolitical conflicts intensify, the need to protect nuclear facilities becomes more urgent. The full text of the report is available on the RUSI website here: www.rusi.org.
Author: Daria Dolzikova, Senior Research Fellow at the RUSI Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme.
