Photo: Russian media
On 24 March, consultations between Russian and US expert groups will be held in the Saudi capital Riyadh to discuss the war in Ukraine. This was announced by Yuri Ushakov, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, pro-Kremlin media reported.
What is behind the negotiations?
According to Ushakov, the day before, he spoke with US President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Volz and discussed “the implementation of the well-known initiative on the safety of navigation in the Black Sea”.
This statement raises many questions, as Russia is currently actively attacking Ukrainian ports and blocking a grain corridor that has become critical to global food security. If Washington and Moscow are indeed negotiating on Black Sea shipping, this may indicate a search for “partial agreements” in the context of the war, where the parties try to agree on local issues without affecting the main conflict.
Who will participate in the consultations?
The Russian side will come to the talks:
– Grigory Karasin is the chairman of the Federation Council’s Committee on International Affairs, a former diplomat who has long overseen Russia’s relations with post-Soviet countries.
– Sergei Beseda is an advisor to the director of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), formerly the head of the FSB’s 5th Service, which was responsible for gathering information about Ukraine before the full-scale invasion.
Beseda’s presence is particularly noteworthy because it was the FSB’s 5th Service that prepared the “intelligence” that turned out to be false and assured the Kremlin that Ukraine would surrender within days of the invasion in February 2022. Beseda himself later came under investigation within the FSB for the failure of this assessment.
The involvement of such figures means that Moscow is trying to present the talks as purely technical – related to shipping and security in the region – but the real goal may be much broader.
Why Riyadh?
Saudi Arabia has recently been actively acting as a diplomatic mediator, organising negotiations on Ukraine. In particular, in August 2023, representatives of more than 40 countries met in Jeddah to discuss Ukraine’s peace formula, and Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman is trying to balance between the United States, China, and Russia.
Riyadh probably acted as a “neutral territory” for the negotiations to reduce tensions between the parties and offer a platform for possible agreements.
Does this mean a change in the US position?
The announcement of talks raises many questions about the policy of the Donald Trump administration. Officially, Washington continues to support Ukraine, but Trump has repeatedly stated his readiness to “reach an agreement with Putin in 24 hours”.
If it is confirmed that the talks will cover not only the Black Sea but also broader security issues, this could indicate an attempt by the US to test the Kremlin’s position before possible larger talks.
However, it is important that official Kyiv does not participate in these consultations, which may raise concerns about possible backroom deals.
What’s next?
There may be consultations in Riyadh:
1. Technical negotiations on shipping safety, without substantive decisions.
2. Preliminary exploration for future larger deals.
3. Russia’s attempts to impose its agenda on the United States and the West, particularly in the area of conflict freezing.
Whatever the case, this meeting will be an important signal for the further development of international relations around the war in Ukraine.
