Dmytro Kuleba. Photo: EPA/UPG
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba shared his vision of the possible steps of US President-elect Donald Trump regarding the war in Ukraine in an op-ed for The Economist . According to Kuleba, Trump cannot afford to look weak, so he must demonstrate to the world that his “peace plan” is much better than Joe Biden’s, and not leave Ukraine to its fate.
Kuleba notes that the main issue for ending the war is not Ukraine, but how to interest Vladimir Putin in ending the fighting. The Russian dictator considers the conquest of Ukraine to be a major part of his legacy, and any failure in this regard would mark him as an incompetent leader. Kuleba also predicts that if the Trump administration puts pressure on Ukraine by promising to cut off funding, part of Ukrainian society may show resistance. This, according to Kuleba, could lead to internal unrest, which would give Putin a victory in portraying Ukraine as a “failed state”, but the responsibility for this would fall on Trump’s shoulders.
The former minister emphasises that neither Volodymyr Zelenskyy nor Putin will agree to Minsk-type agreements, as they have already invested huge resources in this war and cannot accept half-measures. He also adds that even a return to the 1991 borders will not end the war. The war can only end when Putin recognises Ukraine’s right to exist as an independent democratic state.
Kuleba summarises that none of the leaders – Trump, Putin or Zelenskyy – can afford to lose. Trump, in his opinion, will be forced to follow the example of Zelenskyy and Putin in escalating the conflict. He also notes that the only viable way to achieve peace is to force Russia to end the war, not to negotiate terms that Ukraine is willing to accept.
