The IDF has announced that the main findings of the investigations into the 7 October tragedy will be made public between 25 February and 4 March. The current Chief of the Israeli General Staff, Lieutenant General Gatsi Galevi, is expected to submit a full report before handing over to his successor, Major General Eyal Zamir, who will take office on 5 March. This was reported by The Jerusalem Post.
Despite considerable public pressure, Ghalevi will not hold individual officers personally responsible in his written report. However, he will likely force some commanders to resign. The fate of some officers will be decided by the Zamir, which will determine future military strategy.
A state commission to investigate Israel’s security failures, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political decisions, remains uncertain. Netanyahu has postponed the creation of such a commission indefinitely due to possible political consequences for his government.
Scope of investigations
The IDF investigations cover four main areas, comprising 18 components and 41 separate analyses of the fighting in various locations on the border with Gaza:
- Overall security strategy for Gaza – assessment of defence measures, the effectiveness of the multi-billion dollar border protection system, and intelligence on Hamas activities.
- Intelligence failures – analysis of the assessment of the probability of war, research on Hamas activities, and tolerance for alternative opinions in the intelligence community.
- Decisions on the eve of the invasion – assessment of operational commands given the night before the attack and the reaction of the military leadership to changing threats.
- Military actions on 7 October and the first 72 hours – analysis of the army’s defensive and counterattack actions in 22 settlements seized by Hamas.
Responsibility and personnel changes
A number of senior IDF officials have already resigned. In particular, the Chief of Military Intelligence, Major General Aharon Haliva, left his post in August 2024 and was replaced by Major General Shlomi Binder. The heads of intelligence analysis, Special Forces Unit 8200, the Southern Command, and other high-ranking officers also resigned.
The southern commander, Major General Yaron Finkelman, resigned on 21 January, the same day as Galevi. He will remain in office until the Zamir decides on his successor.
One of the main missing elements of the investigation is an external analysis of Galevi’s actions. Initially, the Chief of the General Staff supported the idea of creating an independent commission headed by former generals, including Shaul Mofaz and Aharon Ze’evi-Farkash. However, Netanyahu blocked this initiative, fearing political repercussions.
Some politicians and military experts believe that the main miscalculations occurred before October 2023. Former Chiefs of the General Staff, in particular Benny Gantz (2011-2015), Gadi Eizenkot (2015-2019) and Aviv Kohavi (2019-2023), may be held responsible. Some of the criticism is expected to be directed at them.
Next steps
The IDF plans to publish the results of the investigations in two stages: first, four macro-analyses, and then investigations into individual battles, including those in Kfar Aza, Nir Oz, Nahal Oz, Netiv Ha’asara, and the Nova festival. Final findings on the smaller battles are expected by the end of March.
Despite the planned publication of the investigations, there is considerable public pressure to delay them – the IDF was supposed to present the main findings in July 2024, but hostilities with Yemen, Iran and Hezbollah caused a delay.
The collection of testimonies from the released hostages, including the soldiers who took part in the defence of Nir Oz, is also underway. Their testimonies will be part of the overall analysis of the events of 7 October.
