As of 8 March 2025, relations between Iran and the United States resemble a tense game of chess: every move is calculated, but the risk of mate or stalemate remains high. Recent events – from Donald Trump’s secret letter to Ayatollah Khamenei to loud accusations of Iran’s nuclear arsenal – have kept the world on edge. Will this be the start of a big game for a new nuclear deal, or a harbinger of war? Let’s find out, based on the latest data.
A letter from the White House: Trump throws down the gauntlet
Donald Trump, who has just returned to the Oval Office, is wasting no time. According to The Wall Street Journal (5 March 2025), he sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei with a proposal to sit down at the negotiating table. What does the letter say? No direct quotes, but sources in the administration hint: Trump wants a “huge deal” – wider than the 2015 JCPOA, which he himself cancelled in 2018. The condition is simple: either Iran agrees to stricter restrictions on its nuclear programme, or the US will “do everything to stop Tehran”.
Trump added to the intrigue in a showman’s style, saying at a press conference on 6 March: “I can make Iran great again, but without bombs!” (Fox News). This caused a storm: Republican congressmen applauded, Democrats called him an “unpredictable adventurer,” and Tehran remained silent. Khamenei has not yet responded, but his speech on 7 March (IRNA) was eloquent: “America is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. We do not bow to threats”.
Iran’s nuclear joker
While Trump is wielding the diplomatic sword, Iran is playing its own card. The IAEA report of 3 March 2025 (IAEA.org) sounds the alarm: Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has reached 250 kg – three times the amount allowed by the JCPOA and enough for three nuclear weapons with a few weeks of refinement. Experts from Bloomberg (4 March) say: Tehran is deliberately escalating to trump in the negotiations or to deter Israel from striking.
In the same speech, Ayatollah Khamenei hinted: “Our strength is our shield”. Iran is not just rattling its weapons – it is demonstrating readiness. But is it a bluff? Analysts at The Guardian (6 March) believe that Tehran is in no hurry to build a bomb, but is using it as a lever of pressure on the West.
Sanctions, drones and the shadow of Russia
The US responds with its favourite move – sanctions. On 28 February, the US Treasury Department (Treasury.gov) imposed restrictions on Chinese firms that supplied Iran with components for Shahed drones that are buzzing over the Middle East. This move infuriated Beijing, but also impressed Tehran, which is losing its oil export workarounds. However, Iran is not giving up: according to Reuters (2 March), it has signed an arms deal with Syria to support Assad against rebels.
And here comes the unexpected twist: Trump, according to Axios (7 March), has asked Vladimir Putin to mediate a dialogue with Iran. Putin, who is under sanctions himself, allegedly agreed, but the price of his “help” is still a mystery. There are already cries of “treason” in Washington, but Trump seems willing to play with anyone who can bring results.
The region is in tension: Israel and missiles
Let’s not forget about Israel, which is looking at Iran like a hawk at its prey. Following Iran’s missile attack on Israeli positions in October 2024 (CNN, 15 October 2024), Tel Aviv threatened to strike at the Natanz nuclear facilities. On 5 March (Times of Israel), Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “We will not wait for a bomb to fall on our heads.” Iran responded by promising “hellish retribution”, and the Middle East is once again on the brink of an explosion.
The final of the game?
What do we have on 8 March 2025? Trump is making a challenge, Iran is bending its line, and the world is waiting to see whether these two stubborn players will meet at the negotiating table or on the battlefield. The letter to Khamenei is either a brilliant move or an empty gesture. Iran, with a nuclear trump card up its sleeve, is keeping the West on its toes, and proxies like Russia are adding chaos to this geopolitical puzzle. One thing is clear: the coming weeks will be crucial. Stay tuned – the chessboard is not yet fully played out!
Author: Aleksandr Potetiuiev
